Brendan Rodgers decided to experiment with formations during the latter stages of Leicester City’s season, but I’d mainly accredit this to injured personnel and irregularities in the schedule having a profound impact on players fitness.
For the majority of the season, Leicester City played in a 4-1-4-1 formation. Out of the 38 game Premier League season, Rodgers opted for this formation 25 times. The other formations included the; 4-3-1-2 (twice), 3-5-2 (three times), 3-4-3 (three times), 3-4-1-2 (twice), 4-3-3 (once), 4-4-2 (once), and the 4-4-1-1 (once).
Of all the formations played more than a single game, the 4-1-4-1 has the second best record from last season. The 4-3-1-2 has a points per game average of 2, with a win versus Aston Villa (4-1) and a draw against Norwich City (1-1). Considering the number of games played in the 4-1-4-1, the points per game average is an impressive 1.64 – with 12 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses, and the Foxes best formation this season.
As stated earlier, Rodgers did deploy a variety of three at the back formations to close out the season, but I don’t expect the Northern Irishman to create his Leicester City team around this or a back five. This is for a couple of reasons, but the most pivotal reason being the unfamiliar territory of the formations with this current squad of players, and this is reflected heavily in the results.
When playing in a back four, the Foxes averaged 1.56 points per game, and also went undefeated in 73.3% of their 30 matches in these formations. In contrast, the back three formations netted Leicester City an average of 1.25 points per game and they lost 50% of their eight matches when adopting their back three formations.
It’s this reason alone that probably mitigates Rodgers from building his squad around a back three, so I’d expect either the return of the Foxes formidable 4-1-4-1, or it’s attacking variation, the 4-3-3. With this in mind, what sort of players should Leicester City be looking to acquire, to ensure they have the perfect profiles for either of these formations?
Firstly, Brendan Rodgers has clearly outlined his intentions of signing a winger in the transfer window. I expect that when a suitable player is found, one of the current wingers will be sold – most likely, Demarai Gray. I’m still of the belief that Gray could become an excellent player for the Foxes, but you can’t deny that he’s had an array of chances from multiple managers, and nobody has made him a priority in their squad. With a decent fee being spoken about, somewhere in the £20 million mark, now might be the time to replace and improve. So, what do Leicester City need on the wing?
They need a progressive player, that likes to carry the ball and beat his opponent one-on-one – in that sense, slightly individualistic. However, of equal importance is an ability to create goal-scoring opportunities and be adept at finishing them if required. I’d also state that their natural movements should compliment Portuguese right-back, Ricardo Pereira, who predominantly looks to overlap his winger. Therefore, a left-footed right-winger would be a good fit, they naturally attempt to use their stronger foot on the inside and facilitate space for Pereira to exploit.
However, they shouldn’t be entirely one-footed, I think an underrated ability in forwards is being able to use either feet. With this comes a level of unpredictability when in the attacking third, which is uncomfortable for defenders to deal with – most of the elite forwards in World football are adept at using both feet. With this in mind, I’d highlight a couple of realistic options that Rodgers, Lee Congerton, and Jon Rudkin should be looking at bringing to the King Power Stadium.
The best fits for the profile I’ve described are; David Brooks, Domenico Berardi, and Viktor Tsygankov. All of these players are left-footed right-wingers, and excel at using the interior half-space whilst advocating an overlapping run from their fullback partner.
David Brooks’ market value is currently £18 million, but with interest looming from Liverpool, it will take a fee of around £35 million to negotiate personal deals with the 23-year-old. Even though Brooks’ season was interrupted by injury, the Welshman still provided some inspiring performances in his nine appearances, and even though he’s worth double his valuation, it would be a worthwhile investment for the Foxes.
Sassuolo’s Domenico Berardi has had an incredible campaign in the Italian Serie A. Ending the season with 14 goals and 10 assists, Berardi was the only player in the entire league to reach double digits for both goals and assists – a remarkable achievement. The 26-year-old has a market value of £17.1 million, but with Sassuolo ties from his youth career, it will take quite a lot of monetary investment to pry him away from the club, I envision a fee of around £30 million.
Viktor Tsygankov is perhaps the least known of the mentioned names, but that shouldn’t act as a deterrent. The 22-year-old has enjoyed an impressive season with Dynamo Kyiv, in which he contributed 14 goals and 5 assists from right-wing. He’s also proven himself on the European stage, as during the 2018/19 Europa League, Tsygankov completed more key passes (17) during the group stage than any other player under the age of 23. The Ukrainian has built a reputation for exceptional dead-ball ability, but this isn’t his sole avenue of goal contributions, he’s an extremely versatile and athletic winger. Tsygankov has a current market value of £14.4 million, but with his importance to Dynamo Kyiv, I’d estimate a fee in the region of £20 million would suffice.
All three of these wingers would benefit Leicester City’s campaign in 2020/21, but David Brooks gets my vote. Having a familiarity with the league is vital when assessing players, I think the player with the highest skill-ceiling is probably Tsygankov, but with him being an “unproven” player, there’s always that risk he could flop under Rodgers – although, I highly doubt he would.
Secondly, the Foxes are in desperate need of a centre-back. During Project Restart in the Premier League, Leicester City’s lack of defensive cover was highlighted, all it took was a couple of injuries and suspensions. Looking ahead to next season, and the added fixture congestion of the Europa League, it’ll be worth it’s weight in gold if Rodgers can find an affordable option, with the potential to grow into a starting centre-back for the Foxes.
Currently, Jonny Evans and Çağlar Söyüncü are the main starters in the heart of defence. The two back-up options are veteran, club-captain Wes Morgan, and Filip Benković after returning from his loan spell with Bristol City. Evans (32-years-old) and Morgan (36-years-old) are both in the latter stages of their careers, whilst Söyüncü (24-years-old) and
Benković (23-years-old) are in their growing phases. I believe another young, exciting centre-back would benefit Leicester City, not only in the short-term, but also in the long-run. It’s worth noting it’s imperative this centre-back is comfortable with the ball at his feet, and this will form as one of the major parameters to condense the list of potential incomings.
In my opinion, the best options for the Foxes are; Abdou Diallo, Jean-Clair Todibo, and Panagiotis Retsos. The latter is the only one of the three not to be linked with Leicester City this season, but all of them are impressive ball-playing centre-backs, which is an important faucet of Rodgers’ defensive players.
Abdou Diallo of Paris Saint Germain is the best of the three, his passing numbers for this season are only eclipsed by Aymeric Laporte and John Stones, in all of Europe’s top five leagues. His pass completion rate is 92.9%, from an average of 74.14 passes per 90 minutes of football – which is exceptional. When looking at the current Foxes starting centre-back’s, Jonny Evans has a pass completion rate of 88% and averages 55.53 passes per 90 minutes, while Çağlar Söyüncü has a pass completion rate of 90.9% and averaged 60.39 passes per 90 minutes.
Considering how impressive Diallo’s numbers are against the entirety of Europe, it’s surprising that he’s only managed 1,201 minutes for PSG this season. The French youngster has a market value of £25.2 million, but considering his expected trajectory, PSG would want closer to £40 million. I’d suggest that if he did sign, that he should play as the left centre-back given he’s left-footed, which would mean moving Söyüncü to the right-hand side or partnering him alongside Evans.
The sample size of data and footage for both Todibo and Retsos is low, as both haven’t played more than five matches for their parent clubs – FC Barcelona and Bayer Leverkusen respectively, however, both could be exceptional options as back-up to the Foxes current starting centre-back’s, with the idea of eventually surpassing Evans and Morgan as they both close in on the end of their careers. Todibo has a market value of £12.59 million – which is rather steep for a player who’d be primarily operating on the bench for his first couple of seasons with Leicester City. Retsos has a lower market value of £7.2 million, which is alleviates some of the gamble if he doesn’t materialise into a starter.
It’s also important to realise that this is Benković’s chance to establish himself as a future Fox, otherwise he’ll be another promising player to slip through the Leicester City squad, alongside Andrej Kramaric and Bartosz Kapustka. By signing Diallo, Benković moves further down the pecking order, by signing Petsos, he remains as the third/fourth best centre-back at the club – this is the equation that Rodgers needs to weigh up before signing a centre-back this season.
Finally, the acquisition of a striker is imperative for the Foxes. The irony of the previous statement when the squad possesses the Golden Boot winner of last season, is merely inconsequential when you understand the extra minutes that will be played next season, and combine this with Jamie Vardy ageing another year.
Leicester City’s attempt at finding a strike partner or replacement for Vardy has been in vein over the last four years. Record-signing , Islam Slimani wasn’t able to rekindle his Sporting Lisbon form in the East Midlands, while Kelechi Iheanacho has been second-fodder to the 100-club striker for most of his Foxes tenure. The Nigerian has managed to form somewhat of a partnership with Vardy during the latter stages of this season, but Slimani wasn’t as successful.
If you’re Rodgers, do you sign a like-for-like replacement of Vardy, so that your tactical structure remains similar in attack or do you find a “plan B”, which a lot of the Foxes faithful feel has been lacking for quite sometime?
A little bit of a cop out, but why not try both – a flexible, well-rounded forward, that is as good in holding the ball up, as they are finding space behind the oppositions defensive line. This will leave only a small number of options, as finding this balance makes you an exceptionally sought after talent (i.e Erling Haaland), but there’s a few achievable names that Rodgers could attract.
Those names are; Odsonne Édouard and Ollie Watkins, both of these players have been linked with moves to Leicester City amongst a whole host of other suitors, but I think both offer differing advantages to the current Foxes squad.
Édouard is that perfect blend of both, a threat with his back to goal, receiving the ball from the midfielders and is equally frightening making runs behind the oppositions back line. It’s unsurprising that the Frenchman managed a total of 21 goals and 9 assists for Celtic in their 2019/20 Scottish Premiership season. The sheer number of assists also outlines his ability to connect play, he strives at finding through balls to the advancing runners from midfield – which is plentiful with the current Leicester City squad.
With a height of 6ft1, he definitely offers some aerial presence, something that’s been missing from the Foxes arsenal for a few years, but he’s not superb in the air, in fact, only two of his 21 goals last season were headers, it’s more of the holdup play that his stature provides and excels in. Édouard’s market value is £13.5 million, but considering he’s already scored a hat-trick in the SPFL this season, I’d estimate a fee between £30-40 million would be required to secure his services.
Lastly, Ollie Watkins. In recent media tabloid publications and across betting platforms, Leicester City have been touted as the favourite to sign Brentford’s marquee striker. The deal becomes increasingly plausible now that the Bee’s have confirmed Championship football for next season, rather than the top-flight.
Watkins’ profile is more of a like-for-like with Vardy. There’s a false representation that Watkins is an “aerial threat” because of the eight headed-goals he scored last season, but that’s not painting the full picture. In reality, the transitioned-winger has an excellent awareness across the pitch and is adept at finding pockets of space – even in the box, hence why he’s been able to score a good-level or headers without being an aerial threat.
Instead, Watkins is an elite-level ball-carrier for his position, the 24-year-old completed 47 progressive carries in the Championship last season. This is referring to when a player carries the ball ten yards towards the opposition goal whilst in control of the ball, not to mention an average of 4.57 dribbles per 90 minutes with a very-good amount of completion (50.8%) for his position. This isn’t the similarity he shares with Vardy, his runs in-behind partnered with instinctual finishing is where the comparisons are truly deserved.
Watkins has been receiving a lot of interest from across the Premier League, so although his market value is £10.8 million, it would required £25-30 million to outdo the other potential suitors.
For me, I’d prefer Odsonne Édouard as his profile is different to Vardy’s but incredibly well suited to the Premier League. His goal-scoring record has been impeccable throughout his time with Celtic, and I think he’s ready for a chance to play in one of Europe’s top five leagues.