For a crucial match, Foxes of Leicester analyses the history, form, statistics, goalkeepers, key players, and injury concerns for Leicester City and Leeds United.
For the Foxes, their top four credentials remain thoroughly at stake. The gap between the flying foxes in third and the rest of the league is not an unclimbable mountain: we are not out of the woods yet. That being said, Leicester City remain a potent force in the league, despite initial setbacks against teams lower in the division, they continue to push.
Their latest challenge will be Bielsa’s admired Leeds at King Power Stadium. It will be a tough match for sure, so join me as I analyse the history and form, defensive and offensive statistics (including their style of play), goalkeepers, and key players in this crucial match for both high-flying clubs.
Across 17 premier league meetings, the Foxes have notched up eight wins, one draw, and eight losses. However, their only recent meeting was the 4-1 demolition at Elland Road on the 2nd November 2020. This was the line in the sand from Rodger’s men ‘we are a top team and deserve to be at the top‘.
The Leicester City march
Interesting to note that LCFC is on a seven-game unbeaten run in the league, second only to Manchester City on 11.
That match was a while ago now, so the context is very different. The Foxes last five home matches were constructive: WLDWW. With a combined xG of 7.80, and a total xGA of 5.67, actually scoring nine and conceding four.
Leeds away has been an inconsistent show for five away matches: LLWLW. With a combined xG of 6.67, and a total xGA of 13.79, actually scoring 10, conceding 13. This does not strike as a side able to consistently compete – yet.
Clearly we have go to praise Bielsa’s side for having three losses away from home? Clearly we must admire their style of play as they look to get on the front foot in every match? Well, do not be fooled by the intricate passes and fluid interplay between players, this is not good form for any team, though it is not relegation form. Meanwhile Foxes, attend carefully to the subtle movements and passing ingenuity of Youri Tielemans, he will be crucial in the march.
Defensive stats
Let us have a quick gander at the defensive statistics. In this section, it is important to understand the terms: Expected Goals (xG) and Expected Goals Against (xGA). These refer to the value of each shot taken by a team for or against. A sitter which is scored 100% of the time is valued at 1.00 xG; so these numbers are very useful in analysing the quality and quantity of chances created.
The Foxes have seven clean sheets, with an xGA (expected goals against) of 22.79, actually conceding 22. This means that the Foxes are preventing an immense deluge of chances on their goal, preventing about 0.79 in xG; these preventions are the primary contributions of Schmeichel and Little Wes. Blocks, aerial clearances, and miraculous saves all contribute to reducing these numbers, and the Blue Army has plenty of them in them.
Leeds have 6 clean sheets, with an xGA of 35.85, actually conceding 35. This means that Leeds are allowing an excessive quantity of chances on their goal in matches; they only really concede what is expected of them, though they do prevent about 0.85 xG. Likely this is due to missed chances against them.
A lot has got to do with the system’s that both teams employ. BR’s men are possession based, recycling the ball frequently to prevent turnovers from attack. Bielsa’s men are a fluid transition team, quickly and intricately moving the ball vertically into space, this risks turnovers, which is where they are hit hardest.
‘keeper battle
The goalkeeper battle is perhaps the most protracted. They have little choice but to stand between the sticks and suffer either a barren spell of shouting, or an onslaught of chances on his goal. So, let us sing the praises of these two ‘keepers. A battle between the Great Dane Kasper Schmeichel and Illan Meslier.
Using Sofascore to get our statistics, Schmeichel makes 2.9 saves per game, 45 of his 57 total coming from shots within the penalty box. It is worth nothing that 18 of his conceded goals have come from within the box as well. Kasper does little else in the game apart from saving, with only 0.4 clearances per game.
Meslier makes 3.9 saves per game, 49 of his 71 saves have come from within the box, conceding 30 from within the box. Meslier is also very involved in clearances (1.4 per game).
What this tells us is that the Great Dane has acted as an out and out shot-stopper, providing the occasional clearance or aerial duel, whereas Meslier has had to make a lot more saves in a defensively weak Leeds unit, and has been heavily involved in sweeping functions.
Foxes faithful rejoice! For the Great Dane makes crucial saves and manages to marshal the back line into a strong defensive structure. Leeds faithful also rejoice! For the French youngster is highly active and involved. This will certainly be a fun contest.
Creatives
Now it is creative and goal-scoring capacities of Leicester City and Leeds that we turn to. Starting with the flying foxes, they have created around 1.05 chances per match, with an xG of 30.21, actually scoring 36. The foxes are not the most creative side, nor do they penetrate through defensive lines like a knife through butter. However, they score the chances they do get and are such flying in the league.
Leeds United have created an average of 1.53 chances per match, with an xG of 29.93, actually scoring 32. Leeds are quite creative, and do outperform their xG by a small amount; the issue for Leeds is not creating or even scoring chances, it is conceding.
Overall then, Leeds make more lower quality opportunities on goal thanks to their fluid transition from defence to attack; however, Leicester City create less but better opportunities for their players with incessant recycling of the ball in possession. Watch ‘Bielsaball’ during the match, be completed captivated and allured by the beautiful display. Then turn your heads to ‘BrendanBall’, the more solid and possession-hungry counterpart.
Onto some less exciting news. The team will definitely be without Praet, Vardy, and Ndidi. The former is out for a long-term injury; meanwhile, as Foxes of Leicester’s article reports, both the latter are out for at least a week if not more.
A most frustrating blow for the Foxes! I expect Perez and Mendy will substitute fairly well. Mendy has been on fine form, and Perez links up well with Maddison from midfield.
Key for the Foxes on the day will be the defence. Leeds thrives on an attacking fluidity on the transition from defence to attack, with several intricate and space-bound passes involved in every routine and move. LCFC will need to contain this.
In the context of containment, a potential return for Soyuncu alongside Fofana could be the key to maintaining a strong defensive presence in the Foxes’ penalty box. Leeds tend to drive through the half-spaces vertically or just outside them on the wings, so the fullbacks will need the support of the wingers to prevent any wayward crosses from finding their way to Bamford.
On the attack, LCFC will need pace and technical ability to cut through and around a Leeds defensive line. Barnes and Under are expected. But do not necessarily be amiss if the eever-reliable Albrighton makes an appearance: ‘Sharky‘ has been in fine form, making himself integral to the shape and transition-play of Leicester.
How Leicester City can win
Bielsa’s men are not a tough cookie to crack, nor are they a brick wall. Well, they can be a brick wall, just one with a lot of holes creating a swiss cheese style wall. Swiss cheese is perhaps also the best anecdote for how BR will seek to win here.
Although without Vardy, the Foxes can look forward to a performance and system designed to break down the defensive line, obliterate their cover from midfield, and stretch Leeds to create space all over the pitch. This will be the role of Rodger’s secondary main man – Perez. To drop deep and help Maddison construct space.
With space and a terrible defensive record on Leicester City’s side, a 2-1 win is written all over this contest. But be warned, the absence of arguably the best DM and the most predatory striker will be felt, as it was against Everton.
Mendy, Barnes, Under or Albrighton, and Fofana will need to disrupt ‘Bielsaball’s’ main benefit: the fluid transition from defence to attack. If this happens, then have no doubt that Leeds will struggle to find quality opportunities, and the Foxes will hit them on the turnover (well, should). Come on you Foxes, let’s keep up the momentum!