The scene is set for Leicester City’s away from home to get revenge in this rematch against Fulham. Join FoL to analyse the Foxes’ need to dominate away.
It is the 30th November 2020; Leicester host the 19th team in the league at home, hoping to continue their push for top four. Rodgers releases a defensive team, hoping to have caught Fulham out with a system designed to shut them down. The result is a humiliating 2-1 home defeat; an unacceptable loss given the circumstances, despite the injuries and poor home form, there was no excuse for that loss.
And so, the scene is set for the Flying Foxes away from home to get revenge in this rematch against Fulham. Leicester City must dominate and then obliterate Fulham in their own turf.
Leicester City derailed?
One first remark, the potential derailment of LCFC at home on Sunday to Leeds United. That was a tough one to take. Have a quick gander at the things we learnt from that match, and at my live-written reaction to the match.
Leeds made 1.81 in xG (expected goals), actually scoring three. Leicester made 1.73 in xG, actually scoring one. The Foxes only goal was a low probability shot, it was fantastic and deserved the goal at the end of it. Leeds United’s goal-scoring shots had a total xG of 1.18. Wow. That shows a great deal of individual brilliance to score those goals.
So, what went wrong on the day. I would say there were two lacking qualities in ‘BrendanBall’ – a predatory nature, and penetration. James Maddison, as brilliant as he may be, had a responsibility to make penetrating runs into the defensive line in the absence of Vardy, who will be out for this match unless rushed back.
The lack of that predatory nature is the result of the patchwork system Brendan Rodgers implemented: we see a more Firmino-style creative and technical player in the Ayoze Perez puzzled into an attacking system built around Jamie Vardy. Without Vardy, the attacking play – which remains broadly the same with Albrighton on the wing – lacks the ability to pull defenders out of position or menace the goalkeeper with presence in the box.
There are three options for the next match against Fulham. First, do nothing, this system is quite creative, it is just unlucky to not have scored more. Second, start Under to meld the penetrative pace of Barnes and Under with the creative lay-offs of Perez (similar to the traditional Liverpool front three). Finally, start Iheanacho as a positional striker to make more use of Albrighton’s pull-backs.
Whichever one Brendan chooses, he will need to get it right and get the squad firing on all cylinders again. Now let us revert to the script – just as Leicester must – and delve into analysing form.
Fulham the draw specialists
Regarding form, at home over the last five matches, Fulham have two losses and three draws. Throughout the whole season, they have only won once at home. This is no Allardyce-Fortress. I called Leeds Swiss cheese, so I will deem Fulham mildly soft butter.
Across those five matches, The Cottagers have scored only two goals, and have a combined xG for of 5.27: 1.054 per match. To be fair to them, this is not entirely terrible wastefulness, though they do lack a certain kind of creativity, relying too heavily on runs from midfield. Luckily for them, their midfield is actually quite good.
On the other hand, the Foxes away form has slipped a little: two wins, two draws, one loss. Inconsistent. Scoring six, with a combined xG of 6.51. Not bad all things considered. But also not great. It certainly has not helped losing the predatory Vardy and the penetrative Praet – LCFC could really do with a reinforcement to add either of these qualities into the game.
A draw here would be another good result for Fulham, after beating LCFC previously and drawing with big sides. The Foxes must not get bogged down into a scrappy draw. So, what about their defensive capabilities.
Defensive statistics
Fulham have only four clean sheets to LCFC’s seven. Conceding at least a goal a match. They have conceded 29 goals – joint seventh worst. Facing an xGA of 32.88. This is not a good result!
Fulham are actually quite lucky to not have conceded more! Their defenders have been awfully busy, with a plethora of chances created against them – not all of equal quality – and have managed to prevent almost four expected goals. That is a good statistic going against a top six club. This is what has helped them scrape together so many draws.
Leicester City have conceded 25 in total – four in their last two matches – with an xGA of 26.81 or 24.08 depending on who is measuring (Understat and Infogol are not in agreement on this). It would be sensical to bombast the shambolic defending yesterday, but let us remember what we have going for us.
Brendan Rodgers’ Blue Army have three of the best centre-backs in the league. Three of the best full-backs in the league. And, one of the best goalkeepers in the league – the Great Dane. Their defensive problems are not down to individual failures or lack of talent, it is due to a system which affords little cover on the turnover: they are exposed by quick and direct passes.
Of note here is two new injury woes for the Foxes. Castagne and Fofana will not be fit to play on Wednesday. They both haave sustained hamstring strain after the Leeds match. Meaning the more than capable Soyuncu and Ricardo Periera will have to come into the starting 11.
Alphonse Areola and Kasper Schmeichel are two great shot stoppers. Both have played nearly every match for their respective clubs. Areola making 3.8 saves a game, conceding only one goal from outside the box!
The Great Dane on the other hand has less saves to make, 2.9 per game, concedes slightly more from outside the box at four, yet is more aerially astute in the box [Kasper Schmeichel Leicester City videos, transfer history and stats – SofaScore]. Likely, the statistical differences are down to the quality of what is in front of them.
Fulham’s defence is simply not as good as a fully fit Leicester defence. When Mendy has a back three behind him and a pivot with Tielemans, there is very little space for midfielders to create opportunities against Schmeichel. The Cottagers leave their keeper less exposed, but the defenders lack the pace and strength to prevent chances in the box.
Offensive statistics
Let’s have a look at their attacking styles. Fulham create around 1.2 chances per match, whereas LCFC create around 1.1. Fulham have scored only 17, with an xG of 24.17! That includes a 0.72 xG for each missed penalty. Pretty poor. They lack creativity without midfield runs, and they are wasteful.
The Foxes have scored 37 with an xG of 34.64. The last two matches have shown what happens to a team consistently overperforming their xG when one of those responsible is gone, and two stayed in the dressing room (Barnes and Maddison).
Nevertheless, Leicester City have been possession-hungry, big chance creating monsters. In matches, they will try to retain and recycle the ball to stretch play and reduce defensive organisation, then hitting quickly on the transition to produce a high-quality (high xG) chance.
How can Leicester City win
This is a rematch the Foxes have to win. We are better away from home, play with more gusto, and are against a team who rely of midfielders. The answer to victory is actually fairly simplistic.
Firstly, maintain the dynamic 4-3-3 on attack-transition to 4-4-2 on defence-press to crowd out and congest the centre of the park. On the attack the formation must be horizontally wide, playing incessant switches quickly and directly over midfield to the other flank, this stretches the defenders and reduces organisation.
Second, play Iheanacho: LCFC will find most joy in the duality of their wingers and wing-backs, alongside penetrating runs from a late midfielder. Creating numerical advantages on the wing, providing the option of both pulling back to another late arrival in the box, or a whipped cross to ‘Nacho.
Iheanacho is better positionally than Perez, this needs to be used to score goals. Expect Under and Barnes to flank him; their pace to penetrate the defensive line will suit the hold-up strength and ball retention abilities of ‘Nacho.
Finally, the two D’s: dominate and disrupt. Their midfield must not be allowed any space to think in the game, the two ranks of four must be held high on the defensive press, dominate the midfield and constantly hound their players to disrupt play and force mistakes. Hitting on the turnover will be crucial to the winning side.
A 2-1 win is on the cards for the Foxes – hopefully. They just need to not give the Lilywhites any easy chances, or let their midfield dominate. Let’s build some momentum boys (and get Jamie Vardy back soon, then buy a long term replacement)!