On 10th February, Leicester City will host Brighton & Hove Albion in the fifth round of the FA Cup. Join FoL as we explore how the Foxes can progress.
On Wednesday, Leicester City shall be hosting the alluring Brighton & Hove Albion at the King Power Stadium, as we hope to continue our push to win a trophy or get champions league football this season. Both of those objectives look to be succeeding, despite a plethora of setbacks.
Be that conceding silly goals, losing matches we ought not to have lost with the quality of players we have, or major injuries to form critical players. There are plenty of things which have gone wrong. So, how do we bounce back from them?
This article will briefly explore Leicester’s next challenge, examining defensive and offensive capabilities, as well as declaring how the Foxes can win this match.
Leicester City: Up for the cup!
Leicester City have faced two opponents thus far in the FA Cup – the only domestic cup competition the East Midlands outfit remains in. The first was a 4-0 pumping of Stoke. The second a 3-1 victory over Brentford.
These are two good Championship clubs. So, make no mistake, Brendan Rodgers does care for this competition and does want to see us progress. The FA Cup may not be the most prestigious silverware, but silverware is silverware, and we are hungry for it.
In the first, Brendan’s Blue Army marched out a terrifyingly strong starting eleven for the Stoke clash: Kasper Schmeichel, James Justin, Jonny Evans, Wesley Fofana, Timothy Castagne, Wilfred Ndidi, Youri Tielemans, Dennis Praet, Harvey Barnes, Marc Albrighton, and Ayoze Perez.
This team was exceptionally good and could have scored more. In fact, despite having 62 per cent possession in the first half, with three shots on target, the Foxes only scored one goal. A James Justin classic. Check out this video of the goal.
We saw enthusiastic performances all over the pitch. The only performance which was nowhere near as impressive as they had been was Praet. We usually expect penetrating runs from the Belgian. Never mind that, he was still a playmaker and is being missed now due to a long-term injury.
The Brentford clash had more changes: Danny Ward, Luke Thomas, Caglar Soyuncu, Dan Amartey, Ricardo Pereira, Tielemans, Papy Mendy, James Maddison, Harvey Barnes, Cengiz Under (finally), and Perez, we only had to wait seven minutes to concede a terrible goal.
After that, the second half was comfortable. Tielemans ran the show, Under showed the class player he can be, and Maddison scored another great goal.
Brighton on the other hand is also up for the cup. Their team and their performances certainly deserve to go further in competitions and be higher in the Premier League. They are entertaining to watch and have an impressive set of players.
The Seagulls beat Newport County on penalties with their first team minus Robert Sanchez – who has become their first team goalkeeper after a lot of great performances. Then they faced Blackpool, who they beat 2-1 with another Yves Bissouma masterclass. They did make several changes to their line-up though.
Lack of Leicester City clean sheets
Defensively speaking, the Foxes have been alright. In the FA Cup, we have kept one clean sheet, in the Premier League we have nine. Brighton have yet to keep a clean sheet in the cup, but now have seven in the league. Four of those seven came in the last five matches, two against Tottenham and Liverpool.
Really, Brighton have not been good at keeping clean sheets or preventing goals. In the league, they have an xGA (expected goals against) of 27.69, conceding 30. That xGA is actually surprisingly good.
Brighton’s defensive issue is on the turnover – the counterattack. Once the Brighton transition has been halted or the ball has been lost, the team fails to assume an organised defensive block before a quick counter-transition easily breaks any attempt at a high press.
Brighton need to get better at either a high press or tracking back. This has happened to an extent in recent matches, leading to critical wins against big clubs.
Leicester have an xGA of 26.69, conceding 25. Remember, three of those were stupidly to Leeds United. This is good. In a massive thanks to Wesley Fofana, Jonny Evans, and Kasper Schmeichel for being immensely impressive in defence. They have prevented countless goals.
The Foxes main concessions have originated from two sources. Poorly defended turnovers and set pieces. Ndidi does much to prevent turnover goals with his swift interventions and disruptive challenges. Choudhury has been doing this recently.
The goalkeepers Robert Sanchez and Kasper Schmeichel have been good. It is difficult to predict who will be between the sticks for either team though. Both have secondary goalkeepers who really need a chance to play.
Danny Ward will probably not play. I suspect Brendan Rodgers will want to not risk losing to Brighton in the only domestic cup competition the Foxes are in. However, Ward’s distribution short and long is more accurate than Schmeichel, so perhaps he might play if we go for a direct transition style.
Jason Steele and Christian Walton have both played in the FA Cup for a single match for Brighton. So, I really don’t know who their goalkeeper will be. Probably Sanchez if Potter wants to win.
Creating chances and scoring goals
In the Cup, the Midlands Outfit have scored seven goals in total across just two matches. Brighton have scored three. That is a gulf of four. However, Premier League opposition is another can of fish.
Leicester have an xG (expected goals) of 34.29, scoring 39. These are impressive attacking statistics. So although the Foxes do not create as many chances as some of the top clubs, they create very high-quality chances.
This is all to do with the patient, positive, and possession-hungry Brendan Rodgers’ style. Leicester City perform better when they can push high up the pitch and stay there, incessantly switching the ball from flank to flank to pull apart defences and penetrate through with midfield and wing runners.
Also, Leicester has a lot of options for how to create and how to score (finally). The players could pass to Barnes to run through the defensive line, Justin to come inwards and pull back, Albrighton to cross or pull back to a midfield player, Ricky P for getting around the defence, Vardy for penetration and so on.
Brighton in the league have an xG of 32.93, only scoring 25. In terms of creating chances, they create a lot of chances of an average quality, but they are very wasteful. They certainly need to improve their goal-scoring acumen if they are to perform better. They actually have a better xG than Leeds!
How Leicester City can win
Brendan Rodgers will definitely have the vast majority of the LCFC squad to choose from. The only notable absentees will be Dennis Praet and Wesley Fofana, Castagne may also still be recovering, and we do not know the exact status of Ndidi until the day.
Put it this way though. We still have most of our starting 11 available. Will they all play? No. And I would hope not. Some need a rest before the upcoming tough game against Liverpool, and some need a chance to impress.
Predicted line-up: Schmeichel, Thomas, Soyuncu, Amartey (these will counter the aerial strength Brighton has), Ricky P, Mendy, Tielemans, Maddison, Barnes, Under, Iheanacho. I predict these players because we really don’t have another midfielder like Maddison or Tielemans available, and nor do we have a Barnes style player on the left wing since selling Gray.
Something of note. Brendan Rodgers has stated he wants to take the opportunity to take a look at some of the younger players in the squad.
Rodgers says there "will be changes" on Wednesday, and suggest young players will be given a chance to play.
— BBC Sport Leicester (@BBCRLSport) February 8, 2021
We’ll have a strong eleven. We have to consider the month, the amount of games, and the early kick off too. We’ll have a look at some of the talented young guys with us."
If any young players do play from the youth squad, expect to see Vontae Daley-Campbell or Khanya Leshabela. They have featured in senior team squads on the bench recently.
To win, Leicester will need to boss the midfield. Brighton’s strength is their transition through midfield, with players like Bissouma providing solid passing and are decent under pressure. Maddison will be expected to be a maestro in the attacking third, Tielemans will be the primary route out of defence and into attack, be that passing wide to advancing fullbacks or upwards to Maddison.
Further, we will need to see much more penetration. The Foxes need to make use of Under and Barnes to break through or around the defensive low block they will definitely be facing when in possession. The only time we can afford to go through a midfield transition is on the turnover when Brighton inevitably lose possession in LCFC’s half.
The fullbacks will need to provide plenty of numerical overloads on the wings, this will provide four options for the final build of the attack. Either they can go around a cross, stay in-front of the final defensive line and cross, cut inwards between the defensive lines and pass into a late midfielder or holding striker, and/or rush through the lines and cut inwards for a shot on goal.
Whichever Brendan Rodgers chooses, he will need to be very wary of the Brighton midfield and low block; they will not wish to be out the cup, and they will not wish to concede after keeping clean sheets against Tottenham and Liverpool. They will be tough to break down on the transition, the turnover will be the best option for attack.
I can predict a 2-1 win for Leicester City. The East Midlands outfit should outscore their opponents, but Brighton & Hove Albion can certainly score on their day. Come on Foxes!