Leicester vs Liverpool: The Foxes’ best chance at holding back champions

On 13th February, Leicester City will host Liverpool FC at the King Power. Can the flying Foxes reign in the champions? Join FoL as we answer that question!

Leicester City will have to maintain the frustration upon the wayward Liverpool FC if they are to find a way to win. Let us not be either too optimistic or too pessimistic about this match.

The East Midlands side has the opportunity to take advantage of a ‘Red’ side who have lost to Aston Villa, Southampton, Burnley, Brighton & Hove Albion, and Manchester City! They have lost to a team of every colour and style. So, is it too much to ask we could do the same?

Well, maybe. They are still Liverpool FC, with one of the best starting 11’s (when fit) and arguably the best coach. The Foxes have got to be on their toes to hold back the champions, and will have to frustrate the Reds defensively.

Leicester City: in or out of form?

Leicester have been inconsistent at home this season. Winning five times, drawing once (the Manchester United match) and losing five. This is not great. Worse still is the variety of teams LCFC have lost to at home: from relegation fodder to top six contenders.

The last premier league match was the draw away to Wolverhampton Wanders. A match of incredible frustration and tension. Both teams were fine defensively. That was a predictable draw although.

Check out these articles (Carter, Bishop) analysing that match and what went wrong for the Foxes. What I will say here is that we lacked two things: penetration and space creation. Against such a stubborn defensive team like Wolves, LCFC struggled to find any space, and the players were not told to create space or move out of position too much.

The last match was the midweek fixture against Brighton & Hove Albion. This was a 1-0 win with a 94th minute goal from a resurgent Kelechi Iheanacho – a player a rave about constantly. And to state this clearly: ‘Nacho should be starting much more.

Love this post from Caglar Soyuncu!

What about the Liver bird’s form away? They have four wins, five draws, and two losses. Once more, this is uncharacteristic from what we have come to expect of the Reds. they are usually consistent. Of course, the loss of three centre-backs did not help them.

I would expect their form to pick back up as they introduce two actual centre-backs into the team: Ben Davies and Ozan Kabak. This would let them push Jordan Henderson and Fabinho back into midfield.

Let’s look at some stats!

The Turkish wall vs the patchwork defence

Leicester City have a good defensive record. With nine clean sheets, only conceding an xGA (expected goals against) total of 26.69, actually conceding 25 goals. This means LCFC are preventing 1.69 goals.

This defensive record of preventing good chances on goal and preventing goals is due to three factors. The Brendan Rodgers system, the defenders, and Kasper Schmeichel. Rodgers’ system is possession-hungry, feeding off of controlling the game and imposing upon the opposition a fast-paced progression of play.

The defenders have been excellent. There is no exception. Wesley Fofana, Jonny Evans, James Justin, Timothy Castagne, Ricardo Pereira, Caglar Soyuncu, Daniel Amartey, Christian Fuchs, and even the young Luke Thomas.

They have all understood their role in the system, understood the positioning and style of one another, and become a cohesive wall. To face Liverpool, I would love nothing more than to see the Turk and the Northern Irishman – Soyuncu and Evans.

The Foxes will face a patchwork defence. With six clean sheets, an xGA of 28.48, conceding 29. To be fair, the Reds have prevented too many good chances, but they chances they let through are good. Also of note is how their concession is heavily skewed by that one strange match against Aston Villa where they shipped seven goals!

In their last five matches alone (including both home and away), they have conceded an xGA of 6.91 and eight goals.

Henderson needs to get back in midfield for Liverpool, they simply are not the same team with him being stuck back trying to plaster a broken defence.

Nevertheless though, apart from a few howlers, Alisson Becker and the Great Dane are two reliable shot-stoppers. Liverpool would have conceded more without Alisson: who has had to make 1.2 clearances per game. This involves him rushing out to quickly kick a ball away.

By comparison, the Great Dane has only had to make 0.3 clearances per match. He does not have to rush out to save the team. The defenders have got him covered and protected from easy shots, all Kasper has to do is not let anything through the cracks.

Leicester City’s ‘how to attack’

Offensively, the Foxes are well and truly flying. Well, not recently. Creating 1.13 chances per match, a total xG (expected goals) of 34.29, and 39 goals scored. Over the course of the last five PL matches, they have accumulated an xG of 6.87, and scored six. Mostly this includes one goal a match bar the Fulham match.

This puts Leicester City seventh for creating high quality chances. Other teams are above them either due to a balance between quality and quantity, or because they just create so many chances. Leeds United, Villa, and Liverpool have create a lot of chances, but not necessarily great ones.

The possession-based system Rodgers’ Blue Army imposes on a match requires the penetration, creativity, technicality, and cohesive understanding to create chances for the players. When these features all in harmony, high quality – though not necessarily a lot – chances are created.

The difference to Liverpool is not so stark. They create two high quality chances a match, having an xG of 42.93 and scoring 44 goals. This paints a picture of creativity and goal-scoring intent. Let’s look at their last five matches shall we?

An xG of 8.63, with seven goals. These figures skewed by their matches with Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham United, where they scored more than expected of them. Multiple of those games were either goalless, or losses by a goal.

Therefore, the Foxes show how to attack. Be patient. Do not just keep throwing bodies forward and hoping one of your world-class players will get on the end of a chance. It simply does not work to create tonnes of terrible chances and just hope. This is why Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane are the main threats. They both create and can easily score goals if given space and time.

How the Foxes can reign in the champions

To hold back the champions will be difficult. They will be frustrated after their humiliations at home, their losses to Burnley, Brighton, and Man City, and will look to get off to a quick start. The first half is crucial. Getting a clean sheet in the first half may decide the game.

There are a few injury concerns. Fofana and Castagne remain unavailable for this fixture, as well as Dennis Praet who remains a long-term injury. James Justin’s midweek scare may have been nothing more than a scare, but may not feature against the Reds.

To do this, Rodgers may wish to use this line-up: Schmeichel, Fuchs, Soyuncu, Evans, ‘Ricky P’, Ndidi, Youri Tielemans, James Maddison, Harvey Barnes, Marc Albrighton, and ‘Nacho’.

That is right. No Jamie Vardy party. This line-up would offer basically everything we need to defend well in the first half. Four solid and balanced defenders, a winger who’s defensive tracking back is excellent, the best defensive midfielder in the league, and the ever-reliable Fuchs.

To be honest, Leicester really need another option to play the Tielemans role. That is the transitional role, collecting the ball from the defence and progressing it up the field. Sidnei Tavares could have made his senior debut in this role on Wednesday, yet alas he did not. Next season the Foxes should definitely have cover here with Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall.

To score a goal against this Liverpool team will require patience and keeping hold of the ball. They will press high, they will force a turnover, and the Foxes will have to try and force mistakes and turnovers from Liverpool as well.

Soyuncu is great under pressure, and can break a high press and pass through it very well. Evans is composed when the goal is under threat. Fuchs and ‘Ricky P’ will be critical in progressing the ball around the high press.

Maddison will need to unstick himself from any man-marking he has, and roam freely in the attacking third to penetrate the defensive lines and make clever runs to link up play with wingers.

Albrighton will need to make great use of his crossing and pullback passing into the box. In the penalty box one will find ‘Nacho waiting for a pullback or cross, Tielemans waiting on the edge, and Maddison making his runs beyond the line.

Later on in the match, do not be surprised to see Hamza Choudhury and Vardy. Vardy brings a presence in the box unlike Iheanacho: he can pull defenders out of position. Choudhury has been excellence and energetic, so is great to have while Fofana is out. I’m predicting a 1-1 draw. What do you think?