On 21 February, Leicester City will be hosted by a high-flying Aston Villa. Join FoL as we explore how the Foxes can get revenge in a crucial match.
Very little can get Leicester City supporters angry. The Srivaddhanaprabha family have brought the East Midlands outfit from being little more than a yoyo team, in and out of the Championship and Premier League, and into a top English team with a plethora of talent all over the pitch. Not to mention an emphatic head coach in Brendan Rodgers.
What does get us angry though is when a subpar performance leads to an unnecessary loss. One such dismal performance was our previous match against Aston Villa, at the King Power Stadium. Lethargic, disorganised, and worst of all, not imposing. A 0-1 loss.
However, the Foxes have an opportunity to set the net points against ‘Villa to zero. An opportunity to get revenge. Away from home we can be lethal, imposing, physical, and energetic.
So, let us explore the form, stats and facts, and the key players to see who can win this match and either confirm a place in Europe, or push ever closer to a European spot.
Leicester City: wayward but no drop off
Leicester City last season fell off a cliff. There is not sugar coating the situation. From guaranteed top four, many points ahead, falling on the final day to fifth place. The King Power side may not be living up to the highs from early this season, but they have not fallen.
On an initial glance, the Foxes away have been clinical (Credit to Understat for most stats). Eight wins, three draws, and one loss. That only loss was to Liverpool FC at Anfield. However, those three draws came in the last five away matches, it was two wins in the last five.
This is no immense drop off. This is no cataclysm of a scale detrimental to our league position, but keeping the momentum of winning away is important if we want to have any chance of not falling out of European places.
The last Premier League match for Leicester was the 3-1 pumping of the ‘liver bird’ by the Fox at home. That was a sensational comeback. The East Midlands side was helped enormously by a man of the match performance from Wilfred Ndidi, getting an 8.0 sofascore rating. With an assist, five tackles, five clearances, and three blocks.
Check out some of the articles from other Foxes of Leicester contributors for player ratings, analysis, and a tactical breakdown of the performance. In my opinion, our best qualities were our centre-backs and our fullbacks, providing a defensive display we have not seen since the 5-1 pumping of Manchester City.
Aston Villa at home has been equally ‘fine’. Five wins, one draw, four losses. Their home matches account for both half of their wins, and half of their losses. Their last five home matches have three wins, one draw, and one loss. So, they are doing just fine, not great, but still fine.
Stalwart defending
Aston Villa are a great team. They made just the signings they needed to in the summer and have integrated different players into a good defensive line. Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings, Ezri Konsa, and Matt Targett have been immensely impressive. I would not mind Cash at the King Power!
Villa have twelve clean sheets, only conceding an xGA (expected goals against) of 28.39, actually conceding 24. An initial glance tells us they are either getting something right defensively, or are getting quite lucky.
Basically, this means they are preventing a plethora of great chances – most chances against them are low probability chances – and managing to block or prevent goals. This has a lot to do with Emiliano Martinez – their goalkeeper.
However, if we only take home matches into account, they actually concede a goal more than expected! Leicester City on the other hand have nine clean sheets, with an xGA of 28.37, actually conceding 26. This great defending remains in the away statistics. The Foxes have the third best away defensive record in terms of xGA, second for goals against.
This has everything to do with our defensive line and our goalkeeper. Let’s name and praise: Jonny Evans, Caglar Soyuncu, Wesley Fofana, Daniel Amartey (yes he has been great), James Justin, Luke Thomas, Timothy Castagne, Ricardo Pereira, and Kasper Schmeichel.
The Great Dane has made every save he is expected to make and many stunning saves. Our central defenders are balanced, composed, and energetic when necessary, and with the return of both Ricky P and Castagne for the Villa match, I am looking forward to it.
Let us also not forget the contribution of our midfielders and wingers. Ndidi, Hamza Choudhury, Nampalys Mendy, Youri Tielemans, and Marc Albrighton have been critical to prevented turnovers when Leicester City lose possession, and have even regained possession for the Foxes when necessary.
Leicester City: attacking options everywhere
Though defensively the Villan’s have the Foxes fairly matched, the offensive situation is much starker. Villa create an average of 1.82 big chances per match, have an xG (expected goals) of 38.25, actually scoring 36. Their numbers are lower at home than away from home.
The King Power side create 1.17 big chances per match, have an xG of 36.36, actually scoring 42. The Foxes’ figures are even better when we consider just away matches. Third in the league for xG away, fifth for goals scored away.
So what does this mean? Well, Aston Villa are much improved from last year. Their main attacking threat now actually has support and opportunities from smart players creatively playing a positive game.
Jack Grealish is always key for Villa. His partnership with Ross Barkley, Bertrand Traoré, and Ollie Watkins is lovely to watch. These four will undoubtedly play, and will be key if Aston Villa are to win this match.
Grealish offers pace, creativity, strength, and ‘clever play’ in getting fouled. Watkins can actually score goals. And Traoré is pacy, strong, and seemingly more effective than the other Traore…
Villa will use little runs from Barkley and Traore to penetrate or round defensive lines, as well as create space for late arrivals in attack to venture into. Players such as John McGinn will help the Villans to recycle possession high up the pitch.
This is a slightly different style to Leicester City. The Foxes are a possession-hungry side, flourishing when they can impose their game, force errors, and incessantly recycle the ball back to the defensive line. The defensive line slowly creeps forward, as wingers and wing-backs make false runs, stretch the defence, and prepare to penetrate or round defensive lines.
The Foxes have options for attack all over the pitch. On the right wing, Leicester have a choice of either Albrighton or Cengiz Under, partnered with either Ricky P, Castagne, or Amartey.
‘Sharkey’ (Albrighton) and Amartey could be partnered for a combination of whipped low crosses and early flighted crosses. Both are great defensively and can track back when necessary. Partner Under with Ricky P and you get two penetrative players: one to round the defence, one to cut inside and make a pullback pass to a midfielder, or a shot on goal.
On the left the situation is almost identical. Harvey Barnes offers inwards penetration and decent shooting, whereas Castagne or Justin (when fit) offers rounding of defences and decent pullback passes or crosses. The only downside on the left is the lack of real rotation options with Barnes since Demarai Gray was sold.
Then of course we have midfield runners and late arrivals in James Maddison and Tielemans. There are options for making the final pass and final shot from all over the pitch. But they are patient – Under aside – recycling possession if they cannot construct a decent chance. This limits their chances, but improves the quality of chances made.
The Foxes are more equipped for versatile attacking play in possession, and can hit hard on the turnover when gaining possession. Aston Villa excel on the counter, but can struggle to create high quality chances in possession.
Predicted line-up and the way to win
Brendan Rodgers will name another strong starting XI. But I hope for a few changes to the line-up to help provide the penetration and rounding, and physicality, the East Midlands side will need to push past their strong defensive line.
Line-up: Schmeichel, Castagne, Soyuncu, Evans, Pereira, Choudhury, Tielemans, Maddison, Barnes, Under, and Kelechi Iheanacho.
Expect to see the physical and energetic Vontae Daley-Campbell on the bench, as well as Sidnei Tavares and Khanya Leshabela. Luke Thomas will obviously be on the bench, as he has been so good linking up with Barnes. If we are winning somehow by 0-3, expect Tavares and Leshabela to make a debut.
The way to win is to get every player involved. This means being dynamic in our attacking play and aggressive in our progressive passing. Taking risks is important, but not conceding too many chances is also important.
Leicester must stretch the Villans’ defence, and must penetrate passed their high-quality fullbacks. That is why we must get Barnes and Under involved, with killer passes through for them to construct chances from. Whereas Ricky P and Castagne will need to create numerical overloads on the wings to help stretch their defence.
Additionally, with ‘Nacho on the pitch, he will get involved and retain the ball higher up the pitch. His small technical touches can really take defenders out of the question and create opportunities.
Defensively, Leicester have got to keep Traore and Grealish on lockdown. No social distancing here. Castagne and Ndidi will have to be responsible for these two Villa stars, and they cannot be allowed any breathing space. When Grealish is given time to think, he can pick out beautiful cutting passes, this must not be allowed to happen.
Barkley must be closely marked by either Tielemans or Maddison. He will make these false or real runs towards our defensive line, intercepting the pass is key to preventing him from creating opportunities. Let’s go Foxes!