On Wednesday, Leicester City shall travel away to Turf Moor to face the physical Burnley. Join FoL as we explore how the Foxes can get the three points!
Greetings again Foxes faithful, as I return with another preview for our beloved Leicester. Finally, the King Power side are away from King Power – with two losses in a row in all competitions – and can look forward to getting back to winning ways. Have out check at these articles about the Arsenal loss: Wells, Moore, and Sharma.
Let us not be fooled though, Burnley remain very competent, physical, dangerous, defensively astute, and compact in all of their matches. Nevertheless, this remains Leicester’s best chance of remaining marginally ahead in the top four race. Now we’ll a look at both teams’ form.
Leicester City’s injuries are mounting
Unfortunately for Leicester City supporters, another fresh batch of injuries, aches, and tiredness is sweeping across the first team. With the rising star Harvey Barnes and defensive stalwart Jonny Evans both brought off on Sunday. Barnes is out for six weeks at least.
These issues are the result of the tight season the players must face with the ongoing global pandemic. Relentless matches take their toll most on teams with a solid starting XI: Liverpool FC, Leicester City, and a couple of other clubs with nearly fixed teams.
When a player is missing from these teams, be that out injured or rather tired and offbeat, the rhythm and cohesion the team once had is lost. That is what the Foxes are suffering with in the last two matches at home – a lack of cohesion. However, being away is another prospect.
Let’s compare away and home form with Burnley, with credit to Understat for Leicester and Burnley form statistics. The East Midlands outfit away have been pretty good overall this season: nine wins, three draws, and only one loss. Additionally, the last five away matches have seen three wins and two draws.
Burnley on the other hand have been inconsistent, with four wins, four draws, and five losses. In their last five matches at home, they have three draws, one loss, and one win. So, at least their home form has improved slightly.
The King Power side have started to be a little humbled away from home, with less dominating victories in recent weeks. Burnley have become a little less fragile at home. Of course, the form of Nick Pope and James Tarkowski is critical for Burnley as always.
However, Leicester will have the same squad as in the Arsenal FC defeat, minus Evans and Barnes. I suppose the blue army still has a player for every position, but even a single injury in this match forces an U23 into the side without major systematic changes.
Let’s have a look at the defenders in both teams.
Defending without Wesley Fofana
Leicester City have had a few issues defending in recent weeks. Five goals conceded in their last two matches! In the last five away matches, the King Power train has conceded only three goals, not conceding more than one in any one of those matches.
However, the recent poor performances are resultant of losing the energy and physicality of Wesley Fofana. Alongside Wilfred Ndidi, Fofana was crucial in preventing turnovers and distrusting opposition transitions. Without his forceful approach, the Foxes have had some issues recently.
Nevertheless, the Midlands outfit have nine clean sheets, with an xGA (expected goals against) of 32.19, actually conceding 30. Judged on this basis, this would put the blues eighth in the league table. Even Brighton & Hove Albion are ahead of the Foxes on this account!
This has worsened as the season has progressed, partially due to the injury to Fofana, and may only worsen if Evans is out for too long. However, the King Power side still have a very balanced defence, though it might be looking a little bare boned at the moment. Daniel Amartey and Caglar Soyuncu remain fit to play, so we have one highly physical defender and one aerial ace.
Burnley on the other hand have nine clean sheets, with an xGA of 38.40, actually conceding 34. This means they are conceding plenty of chances, though the quality of those chances tends to be diminished by the quality of the defensive low block employed by the Turf Moor side.
Nick Pope inevitably helps at preventing goals, being one of the best keepers in the league, and an England international. The same can be said for Kasper Schmeichel, though he could have done better with in the Slavia Prague match against one of their goals.
Expected back line: Schmeichel, Luke Thomas, Soyuncu, Amartey, and Timothy Castagne. I would say this is not what I think would be the best line-up at the back. I would much prefer Thomas on the bench to prevent any repeat of the incessant fouls he conceded to the play-acting Nicholas Pepe in the Arsenal match.
What I will say is that Leicester City tend to defend by creating a low (vertically) high pressing 4-4-2 block, creating two banks of compact defensive lines, allowing space for Ndidi and Youri Tielemans to provide pressure on their respective flanks. Meanwhile, the wingers come deep to apply pressure from behind advancing wingers.
This will not be as effective against Burnley, who’s direct and fast counter-attacking play will not allow the Foxes any time to form that defensive low block. Aerial supremacy will be key against Burnley’s attackers: Soyuncu and Amartey are good at this.
On to how both teams attack, then we will discuss how the Foxes can win this match.
Attacking without James Maddison
The East Midlands outfit have had one other key issue in recent matches: an upset in midfield. Dennis Praet, Ayoze Perez, Harvey Barnes, and James Maddison are all injured or out for this upcoming match. Our first team creative playmaker, his cover, and our only other high-quality option who can play that position, are all injured.
This is a massive issue. When Maddison, Tielemans, and Ndidi, are all playing, Leicester City have an incredibly balanced midfield. From defending and retaining possession, to transitioning and attacking, they are brilliant and have the perfect culmination of ingredients to make them – arguably – the best midfield in the league.
However, when a single one of them is missing, the cohesion and understanding between the players vanishes. This is simply because they become used to the partnership when they play together so frequently. Unfortunately, the Foxes will need to fill in the AM role with someone else – be that Kelechi Iheanacho or Sidnei Tavares.
Statistically, Leicester City are actually quite average in terms of creating chances. They have an xG (expected goals) of 38.13, actually scoring 45. Judged on this basis they would be ninth in the league table.
However, a major difference between Leicester and the other teams around them is their general patience and lack of constant exertion within a match. The blue army creates less chances but better chances. This has not happened in the last two matches due to the loss of Maddison affecting the rhythm of the midfield.
Burnley on the other hand are traditional. Second worst in terms of xG with 22.31, actually scoring 18. This is due to their risky direct ball strategy constantly giving possession to their opposition.
Expected midfield and attacking line-up: Ndidi, Tielemans, Iheanacho, Marc Albrighton, Ricardo Pereira, Jamie Vardy. Once more, this is not what I want. In the next section I’ll explain what I think will work best.
How to win
Before writing about how the Foxes might look to win this match, I will note that during the pre-match press conference, Brendan Rodgers has made comments regarding ‘the young players’ – obviously referring to Sidnei Tavares, Vontae Daley-Campbell, and Khanya Leshabela.
As per BBC Leicester, the gaffer declared:
"“I’ve always believed in young players. You never know until you put them in. I’ve seen them grow and develop, and I watch them everyday in training”"
To be honest, with the injuries mounting, BR might just be forced to bring in Sidnei Tavares early. I love Tavares, so think he could play in the Maddison role, though not quite as him, keeping Tielemans in his transitional midfield role is critical.
So, the line-up I would like to see is this: Schmeichel, Castagne, Soyuncu, Amartey, Ricky P, Hamza Choudhury, Tielemans, Tavares, Leshabela, Iheanacho, and Cengiz Under.
I know, crazy. However, to beat Burnley the Foxes will need to have pace, energy, and an ability to both round and/or penetrate the defensive low block which will be formed by the Burnley defenders.
The only option on the wings is two inside/inverted wingers who can play more centrally and use pace and technical ability to beat defensive lines, combined with two highly progressive and attack-minded fullbacks who can round the defensive line.
Leshabela is the only option on the left wing who can fulfil this role. Though I think Luke Thomas might actually be alright in that role. Under is the obvious option on the right wing. I love Under, he is very dangerous and impatient on the ball, which brings much needed energy and unpredictability when facing such a stubborn defence.
It is a similar reason why I want to see Choudhury in the team over Ndidi. Despite Ndidi being one of the best in his role, Choudhury is more physical and energetic, helping to replace that defensive energy lost when Fofana was injured.
Tielemans is the core of Leicester’s transition from defence to attack, so must remain in that role. This is why Sidnei Tavares should play as the creative playmaker ahead of him, despite being better suited to the Tielemans role. Vardy should not be risked in this match; he felt a reaction during the Arsenal match, and I think we should not risk any potential injury to the legend.
To win, the Foxes need energy, pace, constant possession, and aerial supremacy in defence. Leicester City have this in abundance even with the injuries mounting. Let’s just hope we don’t have any more injuries eh?