Leicester City host the wayward Sheffield United at the King Power Stadium on Sunday. Read on as we explore how the Foxes can dominate again.
Leicester City supporters remain at the edge of their seats, after two early goals from both sides leaves the game at a stalemate. The Foxes dominate possession, at over 70% and yet struggle to breakdown the stubborn Blades. A last-ditch attack in the final minute leads to a Jamie Vardy classic. This is not a prediction, this was the last match. A 1-2 win for the East Midlands travellers.
This time though there is a different context: the fight for top four sits on a razor-thin electric wire fence, ready for a daring escape into the top-six club, or another blistering failure reminiscent of the previous season. The is a crucial match to say the least. Leicester could drop to fourth if they do not win this match.
Let us also not forget that Sheffield United were in the throes of a terrible run of form last time around. There is currently a great deal of speculation and gossip – at the time of writing, that Chris Wilder may or may not have been sacked, or will be leaving by mutual consent. This was reported by TalkSport. These reports are unconfirmed, so who knows who will be in charge of the match, if it is Wilder then it may be his last.
So, let us have a look at the form, defenders, attackers, and a how to win guide for both teams.
Leicester City’s delicate balancing act
Leicester City at home has been a rather irritating display. In the previous season – the 19/20 season – the King Power side were fifth in the table for point earned purely at home, while this season the Foxes have slipped to seventh on home form in total.
Thanks to Understat for most stats! In total, they have six wins, one draw, and six losses. The net gained points from home is only one. That being said, three of those wins have arrived in the last five matches, with two losses alongside them.
Sheffield United feature a similar story. Last season, the travelling Blades sat ninth in the table for points gained away from home, this season they sit rock bottom with a single win. This being said, that single win occurred within their previous five matches, surrounded by four losses.
The red side of Sheffield has been dismal away from home. Based on this, we should at least expect the King Power residents to not lose this match.
To balance this, I should note that Leicester have not performed at their most ferocious recently. There are multiple reasons for why this has happened, be those injuries to key players, a lack of depth in those positions and roles, or the tiring of the mission critical Youri Tielemans!
Let’s have a look at how defensive performances have impacted both teams chances this season.
The return of Jonny Evans
Defensively speaking, the Foxes have been fine. Not great as they were at the beginning of the season, but not terrible. It certainly has not helped having the focal point of the defence – Wesley Fofana – injured, then losing Jonny Evans a few matches ago.
That defensive partnership was indominable throughout the early stages of the season. You could not see a situation in which they were easily beaten: Evans providing composed leadership of the back line, Fofana providing the energy and grit to disrupt opposition attacking plays.
Well, Fofana is back, Caglar Soyuncu remains uninjured for now, and Evans is due to make a return to the team. Finally, one of the most balanced defences will be back up and running. Let us not so quickly forget the last minute heroics of Daniel Amartey!
Leicester City have nine clean sheets this season, conceding and xGA (expected goals against) of 34.21, actually conceding 32. Great defending from Fofana, startling saves from Kasper Schmeichel, and luck has meant two potential goals have been prevented.
The East Midlands outfit could do better, though it is perhaps unfair to judge to harshly when injuries and a lack of world class depth is the context Brendan Rodgers must work within.
Sheffield United are not performing well defensively. With only two clean sheets, an xGA of 45.69, actually conceding 45. This stands in complete contrast to their defensive heroics in the previous season.
What has likely happened at Sheffield is a massive hit to their confidence, a minor shakeup of their back line, and therefore a lack of understanding between their defenders. Without understanding the position, the role, and the responsibility, defenders will have troubles staying fully aware, or having the mental desire to put their body on the line to block a shot.
This could all change if their new manager, or caretaker manager, manages to get a solid defensive performance out of the team, or establish a balanced partnership to prevent silly goals being conceded on the turnover.
Let’s see how both teams have fared in an attacking way.
The return of Dennis Praet?
Let’s be honest now Leicester supporters: we have not been that bad, as much as individual performances may have been lethargic, passionless, or even abysmal. The vast majority of attacking displays have been just what Brendan Rodgers would have wanted: a possession-hungry, patient, and pacey counter-attacking team game.
This is the style of our fantastic manager. The possession formation – the 4-3-3 – and the defensive formation – the 4-4-2 – have worked a charm when the whole team has been fit. From the constant recycling of possession, to the smart movements of creative players creating space for runners, the Foxes are dangerous.
However, Leicester has been very unlucky with injuries. A long term injury to Dennis Praet, injuries to James Maddison, Ayoze Perez, Harvey Barnes, Cengiz Under, and the sale of Demarai Gray, have cut the creative and pacey backbone which makes the 4-3-3 formation work well.
There is good news though. Sidnei Tavares put in an impressive first Premier League starting appearance, almost grabbing a wonder goal were it not for a wonder save against Brighton & Hove Albion. Tavares has great potential, and should really start against Sheffield.
Also, courtesy of BBC Sport, we know that ‘Ayo’ Evans, and Dennis Praet should be available. Dennis has been out for some time, so do not expect him to start the match, but do expect him to feature from the bench to get him some game time.
Next season should also improve upon the depth element to the crisis, with players such as Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and Kamal Sowah returning from their respective loan clubs high on form, though many will return on loan, these two should not.
A creative inside forward – Perez – and a technically gifted attacking midfielder – Tavares – are available, and will be important if the Foxes are to succeed against the Blades.
Over the course of the season, Leicester City have an xG (expected goals) of 40.41, actually scoring 48. There is a major element of luck in these stats. Scoring so many more is due to wonderful displays of skill, despite the lower number of shots which tend to be created in a match.
This is crucial. Despite not creating that many opportunities on goal, they tend to be very good opportunities, and when they are not, they tend to be wonderful shots. So, despite lethargic possession-based football creeping into the side without a fully fit attacking unit, they have still performed well. Certainly better than Brighton, who are the worst finishing team in the league.
Speaking of creating very little, the Blades have only created an xG of 27, only scoring 16! The worst goal-scoring team in the league. 16 goals in 28 matches is abysmal. The statistics represent a combination of attacking failures at Sheffield.
There is no in-form goal scorer, there is no recognised working attacking partnership, the build-up play from the wing backs does not have anywhere near enough pace or acceleration, their ball retention is bad, their passing has been wayward, and have I missed anything else? Maybe a new manager or a caretaker can establish a working partnership and a progression of play which leads to creating opportunities.
Leicester City’s how to win
For Leicester then, there is an expectation that – even with substandard home form – they should be able to beat a team balancing on the edge of a relegation cliff. However, they cannot take this for granted. Another lethargic performance, coupled with a new manager/caretaker bounce could be very detrimental to top four aspirations.
There are three elements to the game Brendan Rodgers must focus on to ensure a victory at home. These are pace, penetration, and possession-retention.
Whether on the attack, or passing around our own half, the players must be quick. Quick in moving the ball around the pitch, quick in clever movements into space, and quick in defence. Sheffield is a slow team, so this must be exploited.
Penetration is needed to break through what will be a relatively solid and compact defensive line. They will be vulnerable on the turnover, but from general open play, the Foxes need to create and run into space, use dummy runs behind the lines, and rush around the defensive on the wings. The combination of late midfield penetration, and the rushing wing backs, should provide plenty of opportunities in the Blades’ half.
Both pace and penetration are the key talents of Dennis Praet, so expect him to appear at some point in the match if the Foxes are not winning.
In terms of possession, the minute after conceding possession – be that in Sheffield United’s half, or for a corner – is the moment Leicester will be most vulnerable. Direct and long passing is the primary way Sheffield will look to play, and this is most effective on the turnover. Keeping the ball should be a priority, and preventing corners should be equally crucial.
An expected line-up is: Schmeichel, Timothy Castagne, Caglar Soyuncu, Wesley Fofana, Ricardo Pereira, Wilfred Ndidi, Youri Tielemans, Sidnei Tavares, Ayoze Perez, Kelechi Iheanacho, and Jamie Vardy.
A narrow 4-4-2 with both a defensive midfielder and an attacking midfielder on either side of a midfield pivot. The pivot will likely be made up of Tielemans and Tavares.
I do not think this would be the best option. A preferred line-up which would deliver on the three elements I have stressed for victory is: Schemichel, Castagne, Soyuncu, Fofana, Ricky P, Hamza Choudhury, Tielemans, Tavares, Khanya Leshabela (the only pacey attacking player available for left wing), Ayoze Perez, and Kelechi Iheanacho.
Iheanacho is ‘undroppable’ at the moment. He is scoring every time he starts, and performing very well while on the pitch. Jamie Vardy may be dangerous, but something is not clicking at the moment for him, so expect to see him partnered with ‘Nacho! Up the Foxes!