Leicester City travel to the historical Old Trafford in a critical Premier League fixture against Manchester United. The result could determine the top four.
It was only a year ago where a loss to Manchester United on the final day of the season pushed Leicester City out of the top four – where they had held steadfast for most of the 2019/20 season. My how deja vu sets in.
This time, there are two more matches after this, though the result of this match will inevitably determine whether momentum will be built to maintain top four, or the aspirations of the players and supporters crushed under the pressure.
In this preview, we will look at what the result could mean for Champions League qualification, what the chances of a positive result are, and we will delve into a predicted starting XI.
Leicester City’s top four hopes alive
After West Ham United lost 0-1 to Everton on Sunday, Brendan Rodgers’ team remains five points clear of fifth, though Liverpool FC remains closely behind the Hammers with a game in hand against United.
There remain three games: United, Chelsea, and Tottenham Hotspur. That Hammers’ loss keeps our top four hopes alive going into three tough fixtures.
Leicester can afford a single loss out of these fixtures. This would put us two ahead of West Ham, and three ahead of Liverpool should each team win their remaining fixtures.
Unfortunately, form is a killer. United have not lost at home in their last five attempts, with four wins and one draw. Though, the whole of the season shows their home form to be less prolific.
The Foxes’ away form over the last five matches is inconsistent: two wins, two draws, one loss. The next two fixtures are away, so at least one draw and a loss are acceptable, though a win is of course preferred.
Should the King Power side win one more match, and either Liverpool or West Ham lose one more match, draws would see Leicester clinch Champions League qualification.
The second half battle
Here is one interesting stat for both teams, courtesy of FootyStats. Both teams have scored over double the number of goals in the second half of matches. ‘Second half FC’.
Both teams seem to grind during the first half, and come alive with ecstatic play later on into the game. The reason for this is unclear, though the reason for the uptick in second halves is due to managerial motivation no doubt.
In terms of how well each team plays, United are sixth in terms of accumulated xG (expected goals) at home, second in terms of goals actually scored.
They construct 30.54 in xG, have scored 34 alongside quite a few penalties (not as much as some like to pretend). Further, they have conceded only 17.70 in xGA (expected goals against), actually conceding 21.
By comparison, Leicester City away have accumulated 27.73 in xG, with 31 goals scored. As well as this, they have conceded only 18.15 in xGA, with 17 goals actually conceded.
What this all means for the upcoming match is that this is the battle of two defensively well-drilled teams. The first half may well have very few goals if any present, with the two teams choosing to protect the clean sheet.
Manchester United concede more than they should – perhaps due to poor defending from midfield – where the Foxes concede less than they should, probably due to Kasper Schmeichel heroics.
Further, United score more than they should – primarily due to set pieces – where the Foxes also score more than they should, resulting from early season penalties and heroics from Kelechi Iheanacho.
Predicted Line-ups
Brendan Rodgers cannot afford to rotate or dither on the team sheet for this match. To face one of the best, we will need one of the best.
As reported by BBC Sport, Jonny Evans is added to a less swollen list of injuries. Joining players such as Harvey Barnes, James Justin, and Wes Morgan. He suffers from a not too major ankle injury, though may not play again this season.
This is disruptive, though hopefully not season defining. Both Daniel Amartey and Christian Fuchs can be slotted into a back three without heavily disrupting the flow of the squad, so expect to see one of these present.
The only positive for Leicester is the absence of stalwart and captain Harry Maguire, as reported by Football Daily
. After sustaining an ankle injury, the former Fox will not be fit to play. Eric Bailly can be expected to substitute for him.
My Foxes starting XI is: Kasper Schmeichel, Christian Fuchs, Caglar Soyuncu, Wesley Fofana, Marc Albrighton, Timothy Castagne, Wilfred Ndidi, Youri Tielemans, James Maddison, Jamie Vardy, and Kelechi Iheanacho.
Despite Ndidi, Madders, Cags, and the insane Little Wes not quite looking themselves during the Newcastle United match, we have got to back these world class talents to turn up for this big match and contribute when it matters most.
Hamza Choudhury would be a great impact sub to up our defensive tempo in the second half, where United will start to become more dangerous as they shift through the gears.
Manchester United will have to rotate, as they soon face Liverpool in their second attempt at that match. Expect Alex Telles and perhaps wonderkid Mason Greenwood to start.
This will be a tough match, but the team can go out there and get a result if they remain determined. Up the Foxes!