Foxes of Leicester assesses all possible permutations for Leicester City’s Champions League entry, or the Foxes’ qualification for the Europa League.
Leicester will once again head into a crucial weekend which now determines the European competition the Foxes will be playing in next year. As the euphoria of an FA Cup victory wears off, Brendan Rodgers must regroup his squad after a disappointing display midweek at Chelsea’s Stamford Bridge.
The Foxes are unsurprisingly the underdogs in this fight with the other two clubs being odds-on to achieve their expected target. But hey, this is football, and who doesn’t like last-minute excitement?
Scenarios where Leicester City achieve Champions League
1. Chelsea or Liverpool lose/draw, Leicester win:
This is the most likely outcome where LCFC get UCL. The Blues are away to Aston Villa who comfortably beat Spurs. The return of fans and Jack Grealish ensures this is a potential banana skin for them. The Reds are less likely to drop points to a lacklustre Crystal Palace, but CPFC may perform out of their skins for outgoing boss Roy Hodgson. Let us hope the predictions of pundits such as Micah Richards are correct, and this outcome occurs on Sunday.
Chance of occurring: an optimistic 7/10
2.Liverpool lose and Leicester draw
Even if Leicester fail to beat Tottenham at the KPS, a draw combined with a shock Liverpool loss would also be enough for LCFC to scrape into fourth place. This, however, is rather drastically unlikely. However, Palace will be led by Roy Hodgson for the final time on the day – so anything could happen!
Chance of occurring: 3/10
3. Chelsea lose heavily and Leicester draw
If Leicester were to also draw, and Chelsea lost by three goals or more, the Foxes would qualify virtue of either head-to-head record, or goal difference. Sadly, Chelsea’s defence has been watertight under Tuchel, so a heavy loss to mid-table Villa is extremely unlikely.
Chance of occurring: 2/10
4. Chelsea, Liverpool and Leicester all win
If all three contenders are victorious, Liverpool and Leicester will compete on goal difference. After the Reds won 3-0 vs Burnley, Leicester would have to better Liverpool’s victory by five goals or more, a near-impossible task.
Chance of occurring: no chance!! 0.5/10
Scenarios where Leicester City achieve Europa League
1. Leicester lose
Simple enough, Leicester slump to defeat, probably courtesy of Harry Kane, and will miss out regardless of other results.
Chance of occurring: 3/10 (due to Spurs’ many issues)
2. Leicester draw and Liverpool and Chelsea avoid defeat
A Leicester draw, with the other teams around them not losing would see the Foxes lose out on either points or goal difference. What a terribly close and agonising way this would be for the east midlands team to miss the opportunity of UCL football in 2021/22.
Chance of occurring: 5/10
3. Leicester, Liverpool and Chelsea all win by realistic scorelines
This could be the heartbreaking end to the season for LCFC. Achieving 69 points is no mean feat, and last season would be enough to finish 3rd. Nevertheless, if all three sides win by ‘normal’ scorelines (within 3 goals), then goal difference sees Leicester finish 5th.
Chance of occurring: 8/10
Last-minute drama
In summary, LCFC will almost certainly need a win on Sunday to have any chance of finishing inside the top four.
Therefore, fans who are attending the game are encouraged to create a brilliant atmosphere for the Foxes to thrive on. After all, the fans make all the difference in games like these.
Regardless of the outcome on Sunday, it will not detract from what has been an excellent season, with progress hopefully to come in the summer and future seasons.