A resurgence in form since the international break, sees Leicester City win three games in a row — beating Manchester United, Spartak Moscow, and Brentford to overcome a slow start to the 2021/22 campaign.
To fix the “poor” form at the start of the season, Brendan Rodgers adjusted from his wing-heavy systems, that allowed both Harvey Barnes and Ademola Lookman to flourish, to a two-striker (and consequently three centre-back) system enabling both forwards — Jamie Vardy and Kelechi Iheanacho to impact proceedings.
Some questions have started surfacing regarding the minutes for both the previously mentioned wingers, and how Rodgers will tweak the current formation (a 3-4-1-2) to allow both the exciting attacking options a chance to feature in the first team. But, something that isn’t being addressed, is how the structure will be adjusted to facilitate both James Justin and Wesley Fofana returns from injury?
Investigating the performances of Rodgers’ side in the multitude of formations since Justin’s injury has highlighted a few key principles the manager should follow with his return. The Foxes’ statistically best formation is the 3-4-1-2, with James Maddison operating as the number 10 behind a strike partnership of Vardy and Iheanacho. A sample size of seven games since Justin’s ACL injury in February 2021 has seen LCFC claim an average of 2.29 points per game (five wins, one draw, one loss) in this system.
It’s not just the structure that facilitated the Foxes’ most points, it’s also their best offensive performing structure, and their second-best defensive. Leicester City average expected goals (xG) of 2.41 per game inside the 3-4-1-2 formation and only concede an expected goal against (xGA) of 1.18 per game — this is only beaten by the Foxes’ performance in a 4-3-3 (only two-game sample size) which averages 1.05 xGA per game.
Leicester have also missed Wesley Fofana for the entirety of the current campaign, and the 3-4-1-2 is again the Foxes’ best formation over this period — averaging 3 points per game, 1.9 xG, and 1.27 xGA. So, without the presence of either defender, Rodgers adjusted by adding more men into defensive positions and utilised a closer connection in his forwards (two strikers), and allowed his wing-backs to flourish in both sides of the pitch. However, is this the answer once Rodgers has his “first choice” defenders available?
In Rodgers’ Premier League reign with Leicester City, he’s managed 95 games. In that time, he’s used thirteen different formations, with only five of these being used for five games or more (not the greatest of sample sizes, but enough). Within this, the Foxes only have a single formation that averages over 2 points per game — and that’s the aforementioned 3-4-1-2 (being utilised nine times).
The most used formation is the 4-1-4-1, with 35 usages in the 95 games (37%). Leicester City average 1.8 points per game, with an xG of 1.74 and an xGA of 1.19 (a positive differential of 0.55). Brendan Rodgers made this a mainstay of the 2019/20 season and hasn’t reverted to it since key injuries to players such as Justin and Fofana. I feel like this could be a potential option with injuries starting to subside, and it’s the second-best performing structure (with a sample size above/equal to five games).
For the 4-1-4-1 to work, Leicester City needs a few key players to be available, mainly Wilfred Ndidi, and Harvey Barnes. For it to be optimal, Wesley Fofana would partner Jonny Evans at the back. A major negative to this system is isolating Vardy as the forward, as the wingers play closer to the central-midfielders, instead of providing support for the striker. Hence the slight adaption to the 4-2-3-1 (the second most utilised formation of Rodgers’ reign).
Of the five systems, the 4-2-3-1 is the middle of the pack. Leicester City also has a negative average with their xG and xGA, conceding better chances (1.5 xGA p/90) than they create (1.38 xG p/90) in this formation. As a baseline, this isn’t a foundation to build upon — even with better defensive options becoming available. Instead, I see Rodgers maintaining the 3-4-1-2 structure that — as I’ve already mentioned — is the best performing system.
As good as Daniel Amartey has been as the right centre-back in a three, there’s no doubt that Wesley Fofana is an improvement on the Ghanaian. Adding additional recovery pace, ability to carry possession, positive actions both offensively/defensively and still maintains the aerial presence that Amartey brings. You could also opt for James Justin as the left centre-back over a “hit and miss” Çağlar Söyüncü, as the Englishman highlighted a proficiency to play as one of the centre-backs in a three.
The overbearing issue that Rodgers needs to figure out, is how the wingers fit into this system. Harvey Barnes and Ademola Lookman cannot feature as wing-backs, so an asymmetrical system (having a single wing-back and single winger on either side) could be a solution, but that’s very tactically intriguing and potentially difficult to implement. The talent of both individuals (specifically Barnes) is too strong to play as strictly peripheral squad players.
I’d like a 4-2-3-1/4-3-3, such as Liverpool’s system, but Vardy — as a lone striker — isn’t as adept at providing linkup for surrounding forwards — like Roberto Firmino does for Liverpool, and doesn’t have as much of a one-forward upside anymore. Therefore, the 3-4-1-2 prevails as Rodgers’ best structure — adding Fofana (and maybe Justin) into the back three, and Ndidi once fit again, would provide the Foxes with their strongest system and personnel. Which begs another question for another article, how do Harvey Barnes and Ademola Lookman reintegrate back into the first team?