Leicester City travel to St Mary’s stadium to face off with an equally inconsistent Southampton side. Here is what you need to know and our expected XI.
Brendan Rodgers knows that these are the games his Foxes side have got to start winning consistently to repair their league position and improve going forward. It is hard to forget that a loss to Fulham last season is all that separated us from Champions League football.
This season has been lacklustre for the King Power inhabitants, with inconsistency being the keyword used when describing how well we have played. Nevertheless, with key players back and others returning to form, Leicester has a good chance going forward.
Leicester City’s slow progression
As I mention statistics and results, all data collated originates from FB Ref. Statistics will help us to understand the form of the Foxes in defence and attack, and where on the pitch improvements are needed.
Looking at the past five Premier League matches, both the St Mary’s side and Rodgers’ team share identical records. Two wins, two losses, and one draw. However, the Foxes have faced Arsenal, Chelsea, and a tough Leeds side, while Southampton have faced an easier run in with one match against Liverpool.
Over those five matches, Leicester have constructed enough quality chances for an xG of 6.4. Meaning we could – on average – be expected to score six and maybe an extra one with a bit of luck. Meanwhile, we have conceded enough chances for an xGA of 8.4. Meaning we could be expected to concede eight goals and potentially one more.
Southampton on the other hand have constructed enough chances for an xG of 6.6. Meaning they could also be expected to score at least six and potentially another. They have only conceded enough chances for an xGA of 5.7. Realistically this translates to six goals.
For the King Power side, these figures are actually slightly worse than before the Watford match. This is partly because the Manchester United fixture – where the Foxes played very well – is no longer in the statistics. Our previous five league matches have not been too impressive by contrast.
The Watford 4-2 victory could be seen as the start of the return to form for Rodgers’ team. Particularly, James Maddison is back. With an xG of 0.5 and an xA of 0.5, Madders’ contribution alone warranted at least one goal. Of course, his contribution led to a goal and two assists for the English playmaker. No doubt, he will feature in the first team more again.
Equally impressive was the role of Boubakary Soumare. In the absence of Youri Tielemans, our midfield is desperate for a progressive core to maintain balance and get the ball from the defenders towards Maddison and wingers.
Bouba accumulated five progressive passes, the most in the side. Though not quite as prolific as the Belgian Starman, having that balance in midfield to defend, progress, and create is important, and Soumare offers that progressive piece of the puzzle where Madders offers the creative element.
A Foxes supporter’s prediction
Using these statistics, we can predict the result of the match and also the starting XI. Regarding the match, let’s look at how the xG could favour us over the last five matches. I will exclude the Chelsea match and for Southampton I will exclude the Liverpool match as these are not characteristic of how the average team will play.
The Foxes have accumulated1.5 xG per match versus Southampton’s 1.4 xG per match. There is little to separate the two sides in terms of creativity. That being said, the return to form of the England international midfielder should also mean a greater creativity for the Blue and Whites.
In terms of xGA per match, the King Power side have1.5 where the St Mary’s team have 0.8. Based on both xG and xGA per match adjusted for form over recent matches against average sides, we can see that Leicester can be expected to score one where Southampton can be expected to score one.
If we choose to believe we are improving every match, we should see the Foxes get two goals and concede only one. A 1-2 victory is predicted.
Expected starting XI
The expected starting XI is no surprise. Kasper Schmeichel would start in goal, with a backline of Jonny Evans, Caglar Soyuncu, Luke Thomas, and Timothy Castagne. A strong but swift back four to deal with threats on the counter.
The midfield would comprise Wilfred Ndidi, Soumare, and Maddison. Up front, a front three of Harvey Barnes, Jamie Vardy, and Ademola Lookman. A creative and pacy attack to build chances in multiple ways. What team do you expect to play against Southampton? Let Foxes of Leicester know on our social media channels.