Leicester City have now conceded 29 points from winning positions. They get ahead and then crumble defensively. Here is why that is happening.
The way the King Power side have been consistently weak is frightening. From two seasons running challenging for Champions League football to being mid-table in the league and losing most matches to terrible concessions.
One peculiar trend has been the Foxes tendency to lose or draw despite taking the lead in the first half. We tend to score in matches, but we also tend to concede. I shall go through what the stats show and look at some of the matches where this happened to illustrate why Leicester are losing points from winning positions.
Leicester City’s weak mentality
In the Premier League alone, there are eight occasions where the King Power side lead and then either ended with a draw or lost all three points completely. Five of these were away matches, three home.
Imagine all eight of those remaining as wins and getting the additional 19 points on the charts. On top of these league matches, we also have other competitions where the same situations happened. The prime example being Europa League group stage fixtures.
Looking at these eight, we find patterns in our concession of goals. Firstly, in seven of these PL ties, Leicester scored first, usually within or just after the first half. Second, the Foxes tend to concede late in these matches, holding steadfast until the final minutes of the game. Five of the goals we conceded to lose points occurred in additional time.
Understat and Soccerstats provide a statistical basis for understanding this weird phenomenon. Our worst periods for conceding are the 0-15th minutes, 16-30 mins, and 76-90 mins. We either concede early in matches or late.
Brendan Rodgers side will tend to gear up slowly and become the better side during the 31-45- and 46-60-minute periods. We build up to being strong and then capitulate later in the game. Even in these situations, our expected goals stat is not good.
In the eight league matches, Rodgers’ team conceded 14.35 in xGA and created 9.5 in xG. That is a difference of 4.85 in xG. So, what is happening is that Leicester will be on top for the middle part of matches, not create good enough, or take their chances, and then concede good opportunities later in matches.
How can this be happening?
It seems like an impossible take to accurately determining what is causing these meltdowns. Further is it difficult to explain the correlation between the style of play and how we are losing these points.
However, we have some pointers to help us. Possession is a critical element of modern football: you need to have the ball to do anything with it. However, two other elements are equally vital: progression and control.
In four of the PL fixtures, the Foxes had a majority of possession, and in their two recent matches (Everton and Newcastle United), Rodgers’ team had over 60% possession. Additionally, in those matches we do not even create the most in xG.
Therefore, I can say with certainty that in games where we are expected to be the dominant side, and we do genuinely dominate possession and progression, the Foxes lack control over the style of play and struggle to create against defensively oriented sides. When an opposition is defending well, we cannot break through.
Conversely, even when we are breaking through, not taking our chances, the opposition is consistently finding a way into our more vulnerable areas and create devastating chances on goal. The opposition are controlling the style of the game.
This frustrating circumstance is the result of at least two elements. Firstly, Rodgers has not worked out a way for the King Power club to win in multiple ways. Second, a lot of the players have been injured, tired, out of form, or simply not passionate enough.
Learning to win and impetus
The only way to change this shocking trend is for the Northern Irishman to learn to win. We brought in winners like Patson Daka, Ryan Bertrand, Boubakary Soumare, etc. but did not instil that mentality or tactical flexibility necessary to take advantage of it.
Leicester must learn to win when they are utterly dominant (creating more space, creating chances, and taking chances better), when they are playing back and forth (defensive resilience and imposing our style), when they are on the back foot (imposing our style and taking chances), and when we just must grind out a result.
Now, Rodgers sets us out in one way, and cannot change this when it is not going well. If things are going fine, there is no issue, but when the opposition plays and defends well, it becomes a struggle.
It also does not help that the gaffer’s idea of tactical change is to just bring on another defender. Newsflash: an extra defender does not mean better resilience or control. To control a game, you need a strong and passionate midfield, not five defenders. All five defenders do is provide more bodies to block shots, it does not prevent shots or necessarily force the opposition out wide.
On top of this change in tactical flexibility and mentality towards match management, we also need a new drive and passion to the team. So, we need that squad refresh desperately to bring in fresh talent with passion and drive to be winners. Players like Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and Ricardo Pereira.