Leicester City’s Jamie Vardy is the second highest active Premier League player in the division’s all-time top scorers list – a sentence that would’ve seemed barking mad as he made his top flight debut at the midpoint of his career aged 27. Second only to Harry Kane by this metric, the Foxes forward sits 14th in the overall list, netting on 133 occasions so far, ahead of some stellar names such as Ian Wright and Didier Drogba. Currently in a Dutch sandwich between Robin van Persie and Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink, breaking into the all-time top 10 suddenly seems a realistic target.
Being sidelined for 11 of a 13-game spell in the middle of the last campaign, the forward may have thought his chances of producing a strong goals haul for 2021/22 had disappeared, but netting five times in his final four appearances including the season-closing thrashing of Southampton, boosted his total to 15 for the season from just 20 starts. Match that tally again this time around, and the Leicester man will be just two goals away from equalling Michael Owen’s total of 150, with the former Liverpool man sitting on the edge of the top 10.
If we extrapolate Vardy’s 21/22 numbers across a hypothetical full season at 3420 minutes, he’d have been expected to notch somewhere between 28 and 29 goals. Obviously, the chances of reaching that tally are incredibly slim, given that his record goals haul for a season is 24. The main caveat is that, with turning 36 in January and as age naturally begins to catch up, the Foxes forward cannot be expected to play every minute.
Last season was evidence that Brendan Rodgers is conscious of Vardy’s ever-increasing fragility, cautiously managing his minutes. A fit Jamie Vardy will convert more often than an overworked one, and if conditioned appropriately, there’s no reason he can’t reach 150 Premier League goals by the end of the next campaign. Even matching his worst Premier League tally for a season in seven years would still bump him onto 146.
One overlooked aspect of the Jamie Vardy story is how long his career at the top level could last. Take Wayne Rooney as an example: breaking through at 16 and suddenly playing 40 matches a season before finding himself in the MLS at just 32. Vardy hasn’t been exposed to the mental and physical toll that consistent pressure and output can have on a professional from such a young age and in theory could perform to a high standard into his late thirties.
If pace is beginning to desert him, it hasn’t been that telling, and certainly isn’t impacting on his ability to know where the goal is. The best players adapt to overcome their limitations as certain attributes begin to fail them, and Vardy is a proponent of that. The legs may hold him back slightly, but this is where the intelligence he possesses will bear fruit.
A weakness in front of goal for the Foxes last year was finding the net with their heads, which their No.9 put right on his brief return from the treatment table away at Burnley in March. 12% of Vardy’s Premier League goals have come from his head, and as his game evolves to become more of crafty penalty box striker who relies on good reading of the game and clever movement, this will be something he and his manager will hope to improve and rely upon.
It may not be long before the Foxes talisman hangs up his boots, after which there’ll surely be a statue along with other commemorations, but one thing’s for certain: when he knows the time’s right, and that he can’t push the club any further, he’ll be man enough and proud enough to take a step back and avoid restricting this talented squad from reaching its potential. 150 goals is easily achievable for a striker as prolific as Vardy, the key question about whether he can achieve it is more about whether his body allows him to. Do you think the main man will reach these heights? Let FoL know on our social media channels.