Leicester City next face Leeds United in another overly important Premier League fixture. Here is all you need to know and our predictions.
10 games played, five point gained, a singular win, two draws, seven losses. The King Power club remain second bottom of the Premier League, only saved from rock bottom by goal difference. Simply unacceptable.
In that light, the Foxes host Leeds on 20/10/22 at 20:15. The fixture continues to be a critical one – just as all those before have been. A win does not see Leicester climb out of the relegation zone. However, it gets us within a one match of climbing out, which would be a much welcomed relief.
If you want to follow the fixture, live reporting will always be available on social media. To watch, Amazon Prime Video will be broadcasting the match. That is, if you really want to watch this Brendan Rodgers side.
What Leicester City’s stats show
Statistically, the Foxes are in an interesting position. To be fair, had we taken the chances created better, and defended those taken against just a little better (old Danny Ward here) then the situation would be much different. Please click the link below to continue reading this article.
According to FB Ref, Leicester City have constructed 1.04 expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes, conceding 1.34 in xGA per 90. On xG alone, the King Power club should be 13th. This remains the case when we instead focus on xG Difference per 90 (which is -0.30).
Leeds by contrast are in a similar position. They sit 15th in the league, with nine points: coming from an additional win and an additional draw earlier in the season. They have constructed 1.42 xG90 and conceded 1.24 in xGA90. They are positive 0.18 in xGD90.
So, as we already were aware, Leeds United are a highly creative team, utilising high presses and swift counter attacks to cut through opposition lines. It is a highly effective method of creation. They would also be higher up the table if everything had gone as expected.
In essence then, Leicester create less, defend less, and are less well equipped (due to injuries) to deal with the attacking threat posed by our incoming opponents. Both teams can expect to score at least once, although things could be very different with the exclusion of James Maddison.
‘Madders’ accounts for 1.5 of our total xG and five of our goals. It is undeniable the Foxes will be less creative without the player. So, we cannot even be sure of scoring a single goal dependent upon who Rodgers chooses to play.
Predicted starting XI
Speaking of which, let’s try to predict the starting XI. So, with Ricardo Pereira, Ryan Bertrand, Wilfred Ndidi, Maddison, and likely Jonny Evans excluded, the team which faced Crystal Palace may simply be copy and pasted minus the English attacking midfielder.
I should expect: Ward, James Justin, Daniel Amartey, Wout Faes, Timothy Castagne, Boubakary Soumare, Youri Tielemans, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Ayoze Perez/Dennis Praet, Harvey Barnes, and Patson Daka. A typical 4-3-3 with Soumare playing a deeper role, and ‘Ayo’ probably taking the RW position.
I really hope this is not the team which is put out. Daniel Iversen and Caglar Soyuncu would make better choices to deal with the physically intense nature of Leeds. We need a goalkeeper without a shattered confidence, and a defender of significantly greater quality than Amartey.
Predicted result
I believe we are in for either a tough one, or a repeat of the Nottingham Forest fixture. We will either lose 1-2 or win 2-0. It is difficult to predict exactly which will occur, but I would err on the side of losing against a highly creative team.
Although, it is worth noting that Leeds are actually beneath the King Power club on form – thanks to our solitary win – so it could be conceivable that a desperate Leicester can find a win out of this fixture. The only requisite is composure and progression retention: keep the passing neat and keep it in their half.