Leicester City host title challengers Manchester City as the Foxes look to climb their way up the table. Here is what they must do to win the match.
12 games played, 11 points gained, no longer rock bottom of the Premier League. The King Power club look to continue building themselves out of the doldrums. However, their toughest challenge yet looks nigh impossible to come out with any points.
As per FB Ref, the Foxes have acclaimed 1.09 in xG per 90 (so one goal a game is expected) and 1.50 in xGA (so opponents are also expected to score at least once, and more likely to score a second). On the counter, the Manchester blues have 2.09 in xG90 and only 0.74 in xGA90.
Leicester City v Manchester City: Injuries
Injuries could play a massive factor in deciding the fate of Brendan Rodgers’ side: both positively and negatively. Regarding the King Power side, almost the entire squad is available, with no notable suspensions.
There are exclusions. Ryan Bertrand and Ricardo Pereira are definitely out, with both Wilfred Ndidi and Jonny Evans possible doubts. They are to be assessed, but do not expect both back at the same time. However, this may be the fixture Rodgers decides he needs them both fit for.
On the other side, Pep Guardiola has stated star striker Erling Haaland will need to be assessed ahead of the tie, and might miss the Leicester match. Meanwhile, Kalvin Phillips and Kyle Walker are ruled out. Joao Cancelo had a nasty fever, so his inclusion remains likely, although there is a possibility the player will not feature.
What Brendan Rodgers has to do
Regardless of what players are in or out, the Northern Irish head coach has got to make a tough choice come the tie. The choice is one between progressiveness, positivity, and possession versus negativity, counter-attacking, and a strong defence. It is clear which option to prefer.
Even without Haaland, the Citizens have Julian Alvarez, Riyad Mahrez, Phil Foden, Kevin de Bruyne, etc. There remains no room for the Foxes to mess around: they must press, congest, and pounce. To do this, Rodgers must employ a specific formation.
Three at the back, four in midfield, three upfront. A mild deviation from the previous few weeks. This would necessitate one of three joining the existing two centre-backs: James Justin as a LCB, Evans back in the centre, or Caglar Soyuncu re-included.
The likelihood of seeing ‘Cags’ is rather low. Therefore, Rodgers should bring in Marc Albrighton to perform duties as the ‘RWB’ with Timothy Castagne taking point on the left, with Justin behind him. This would provide an ideal balance of defence, attack, and crossing from the flanks.
Meanwhile, the gaffer must select Youri Tielemans and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall to start in midfield. Both can be composed, possessive, and technical. These are important traits when there will be so few of them in comparison to the onslaught of Manchester players.
Upfront there are no debates: Harvey Barnes, Jamie Vardy, and James Maddison. Two of those are our biggest hitters, and one of those will pull defenders away from the others to create chances.
What the players have to do No.1
As previously mentioned, the players have to press, congest, and pounce. This means a style of play reliant on a compound block pressing as a singular unit in midfield to try and win the ball, or at the very least disrupt possession. In doing so, we create chances and minimise opposition chances.
By congesting space in the defensive third, Leicester City can control the places in which the opposition can pass to, play into, and shoot from. This is essential. Keeping those attackers further out, and further on the wings, will be needed simply to give Danny Ward better opportunities to make a save.
By pouncing in counter-attacks, we will have the best opportunities to score. Progressing the ball quickly and recklessly will be useful. Even should this result in a loss of possession, the priority should be fast progression for Barnes and Vardy to take advantage of.
What the players have to do No.2
Finally, and most obviously, consistency is key. Throughout the whole fixture, the King Power squad must learn to maintain that compact, congested, and collective pressing shape which will prevent opportunities and win the ball.
From open play to set pieces, any derogation of duties or failure to act at the right moments will be fatal. Giving such a clinical side any chance is a death wish. Composure at the right moments is equally key, supporters have seen how a lack of action by Evans has been a blessing, providing better blocking or controlling actions to be undertaken at later points of play.
Think of it this way, if either Wout Faes or Daniel Amartey rushed out of position while one of the two wing-backs or Justin were not providing adequate cover, a space opens up for a pacy or technical player to get a shot off. They must choose their actions wisely.