Leicester City have seen an uptick in their prospects in recent fixtures, which coincidentally matches the absence of Jonny Evans. Let us explore why.
The King Power club find themselves 14th in the Premier League after 14 games played on 14 points. Their form has improved immeasurably from the abyssal depths it was found within in prior fixtures: when looking at the last five games, the Foxes are fifth in the form table.
Clearly, something has changed. Be that Brendan Rodgers’ tactics or something more superficial. Interestingly, the start of the uptick – arguably – was the Crystal Palace 0-0. Although not spectacular, the following results were three wins and an agonising 0-1 loss to Manchester City. In all these matches, veteran Evans was absent.
Leicester City: What the stats show!
As is the usual, it is easy to state some eye test reasoning, but let us delve into a few facets of information to understand this revival story a little more objectively. For this, I will collate from FB Ref.
In the nine games prior to Evans’ absence, Leicester attained 1.12 xG per game and conceded an average of 1.63 xGA per game. This does not tell the whole story: the Foxes performed well in terms of possession retention; however, particular games saw much higher xGA and – specifically – more goals conceded than would have been expected.
In the games since, we have seen 1.14 in xG per game and 1.2 in xGA per game. Again, this does not inform the whole story: possession actually dropped significantly, and particular games saw significantly higher xGA while not conceding all those expected goals.
It might be a little presumptuous, but after Evans’ withdrawal, we saw lower possession, lower xGA, and no detrimental effects to chance creation. In short, we continued to create more chances while actually improving slightly in defence.
It is obviously far too easy to single out one individual change in the side. Next then, we shall look into what has actually changed.
What’s changed?
The first obvious change is in personnel. Excluding the Manchester City fixture, the team has largely speaking been identical each match: Danny Ward, James Justin, Wout Faes, Daniel Amartey, Timothy Castagne, Boubakary Soumare, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Youri Tielemans, Harvey Barnes, James Maddison, and Patson Daka. Consistency.
This is a team minus both the captain and Wilfred Ndidi. Something has clicked with this set up, and I think we can look towards the midfield for a clue. As some supporters have noted, the Belgian Starman has started from much deeper in recent matches, this is to provide a progressive bounce and quality to the initiation of attacks, and offer additional cover with Soumare for the backline.
These characters have provided an opportunity for either Amartey or the brilliant Faes to either progress or be a little more aggressive in defence: the Belgian defender likes to rush into a challenge. Although less balanced than before, the midfield can shield, press, progress, and score. Especially with the lively ‘KDH’ Leicester control the centre.
Lars Knudsen joined the Foxes as set piece coach, and the positive impact has been clear to see. To be blunt, Ward has come to punch or claim more often, and defenders have been more proactive in searching for danger and snuffing it out. There has also been a more reckless ‘kick it out’ strategy to minimise chances and regain composure or structure after set pieces.
The elephant in the room is the Northern Irish defender. No one would claim Amartey is better, but we would say Faes has been a revolution, and the Ghanaian defender has offered a passionate and improved image from some of his former missteps. To be honest, Amartey offers a different style of play, which has benefitted in recent matches.
I used to call Jonny Evans the stalwart. Composed, strong, and an expert in timing, his defensive actions or inactions were almost immaculate. However, in this composure, we would see a lack of rushing to disrupt, with a priority to block a chance.
Without a proper midfield shield, an over-aggressive defender would leave too much space, and Evans would not track into that space, seeking rather to track a run or stay in front of his opponent. This consistently created chances for the opposition. Whether this is more the result of the midfield change or the backline change is debatable.
In defence of Jonny Evans
Personally, I feel putting Evans back in alongside Faes with this newly strong midfield will bring better defending and an overall reduced number of chances for the opposition. Additionally, it should help to maintain possession, as the Northern Irish defender does like to recycle the ball or look for the pass rather than constantly knocking it long hopefully.
At the moment, low possession and reckless/hopeless long balls do slow us down and break up momentum. Once Leicester can reintegrate the veteran and not lose what they have gained, then a more balanced team should have the opportunity to push on and gain more points.