Leicester City will host Nottingham Forest in another critical match. Here is what to look out for in the game, as well as some stats to pay attention to.
18 games played, 11 lost, only five won, and two draws; that is 17 points, leaving the Foxes in 13th place. Three teams are breathing down the King Power club’s neck, and those ahead are ahead by multiple wins. It will be hard to get back ahead without fresh faces.
Either way, next up is Nottingham Forest. The local rivals are level on points and have a significantly worse goal difference. A win takes us clear, a loss plummets us down the table, a draw keeps us further away from the rest of the pack. Leicester are in a relegation scrap, but at least currently lead that scrap.
Leicester City’s expected difference
The first thing to watch out for is the difference between the sides in terms of form, creativity, and defence. I am compiling the stats from FB Ref to illustrate the points made below.
The King Power club have two wins and three losses in their last five, not winning a single match since the World Cup restart. Forest have two draws, two wins, and one loss in their last five. Clearly, the Brendan Rodgers train has come off the tracks where the inconsistent Steve Cooper side could either do well or horribly.
Rodgers’ team have created around 1.16 in expected goals per 90 this season. This means we should expect the average goal scorer to have got at least one goal in each of their matches. With 24 actual goals, the Midlanders have scored more than expected: were it not for their poor defensive output they would be significantly higher in the table.
Coopers’ team have constructed 1.04, which puts them marginally below the Foxes with a total of 18.8 xG versus 20.8 xG over the course of 18 games. Forest have actually scored 13: well that is just an abysmal stat reminiscent of Brighton & Hove Albion’s most inconsistent of days. They simply cannot score their chances.
Defensively, both have conceded 1.56 in xG to their opponents: a total of 28.08 xG. However, the terrifying stats are the actual concession, 31 and 34 goals conceded respectively. Forest the second worst, Leicester the fourth worst in the Premier League. So, both have awful defences.
This is what to look out for: how the defence stack up on the day. Are defenders confident and aggressive, or are they timid and lacking in instinctive disruption? If you spot the latter, the other side will likely win the day.
A defiant left-wing
Without James Maddison, all of Leicester’s creativity flows down the left. Either a marauding left-back/wing-back with Luke Thomas or Timothy Castagne, or an aggressive and ever-explosive Harvey Barnes will be the key for the Foxes to unlocking the Nottingham defence.
Despite the agenda against him, Barnes has accumulated the greatest xG and has the third best xG per 90: only behind less-played Kelechi Iheanacho and Patson Daka. That is our danger man and the only real threat which can dominate, terrify, and create.
There is only one catch. The English winger must be confident he can beat his man. When facing their right-back, Barnes must show courage to run at them and explode past them. Should this not happen, then Rodgers’ side will struggle to break past a stiff low block which will be deployed.
At the same time, Nottingham’s primary threat is down the right. Whoever is at left-back and left-centre-back must be ever vigilant to the threat posed by Brennan Johnson. Creative, pacy, and clinical: he is their second best player for xG total, third for xG per 90, and second in goals scored, as well as second for assists. Nullify Johnson and that devastating counter-attacking force, and the Foxes will have a decent chance.
The return of Papy Mendy?
After a decent showing in the embers of the Newcastle United thrashing, Mendy illustrated that he can be a composed passer and help Leicester retain possession when necessary. Previously, the player has been behind Wilfred Ndidi in the pecking order, but that might change for this fixture.
I expect that Ndidi will still start, however, there is a likelihood that the Senegalese international will find himself called upon by Rodgers when the game is getting chaotic. Mendy would help to bring composure, defiance, and clinical passing, although he will not be creating any last gasp chances.
At the same time, there are plenty of injuries in midfield. Plenty of players out means more opportunities for players like Ayoze Perez, Papy Mendy, and others to play games and prove themselves.
There will be a lot to work on in midfield. Morgan Gibbs-White, Jesse Lingard, Orel Mangala, etc. There are many decent midfielders in that team: although they have not all hit the ground running, they will need to be dealt with, and I think Mendy has become the man for the job.