Leicester City boss Brendan Rodgers dropped No 1 Danny Ward and gave Daniel Iversen his first Premier League match. Here is what the gaffer had to say.
The King Power side remain lurched in a relegation battle after a poor run of results – mostly losses – has seen them slip once more to just above the drop zone. The Foxes desperately need to improve if they are to escape the battle at the bottom.
Two areas of heightened scrutiny have been the goalkeeper and the coach. With club legend Kasper Schmeichel sold to Nice, supporters were split on whether to stick with Ward & Iversen or bring in a new No. 1. They did sign a goalkeeper – Alex Smithies – but it was clear that Ward was to be given a chance. He was, and after the poor run of form, has been dropped to give the Danish goalkeeper an opportunity to play.
Leicester City supporters and stats
Before looking at Rodgers’ self-identified reasoning, it is important to understand what supporters and the stats tell us about the Welshman and what Iversen could do differently. Primarily, it has been felt that the shot-stopper has not pulled off too many difficult saves, only really doing well when faced with simple shots.
Well, according to FB Ref’s ratings, the goalie is within the 75th percentile for post-shot expected goals vs shots on target. This is a stat which indicates the general competence of the goalie on the basis of how much we expect the shot to be converted: he has 0.29. As a comparison, one of the ‘best’ in the league – Nick Pope – has 0.24, which is within the 10th percentile.
What this indicates is that he is saving the vast majority of those he is expected to as well as performing well against those shots that are expected to be converted. Usually, this is an indication of the sheer quantity of shots faced rather than the quality of the goalkeeping. It is equally worth noting that Ward does more of what we want a modern goalkeeper to do.
He is within the 83rd percentile for defensive actions outside the penalty area: these are the last man clearances as an attacking player barrels after a ball over the top of the defence. In essence, Ward is statistically undertaking a large number of defensive actions which ought to have been dealt with by shielding midfielders and competent defenders.
To be honest, the eye test and stats do tell us something crucially important: the Welshman is not a bad goalkeeper. Simply put, Ward cannot pull off the spectacular saves of the former Danish No. 1, but he can do the basics reliably well. Thus far this is not particularly negative.
However, there is a major caveat: his positioning and performances have worsened significantly in-line with the dramatic collapse in form over the last five fixtures. This is not a coincidence. It would seem Ward has a fragile confidence consistently hammered by a clown-like defensive organisation which has only recently improved with the arrival of Harry
What Rodgers has said
Rodgers’ comments are aligned with this general understanding of the No. 1. As per LeicestershireLive:
"“It’s always important to give a goalkeeper a good run of games and I felt Danny Ward deserved that… I had a long conversation with him before the Chelsea game in terms of… the standard I expect and what I want from my goalkeeper”"
Danny Ward had his opportunity. A prolonged run of games as Leicester City’s main ‘keeper. The chance was there to prove himself the right style and quality to replace the Danish legend. Yet still the Welsh goalkeeper failed to find the consistency and confidence to do the hard job.
"Iversen has played a lot of football over the past four years and he’s progressed… he’s a brilliant shot-stopper and he’s good on crosses… He’ll get a run of games. It’s important he feels he’s not just judged on this performance. I thought he did really well"
Iversen on the other hand has been playing plenty of matches beforehand on loan, and has equally been performing well in training. Coming in with a freshness and calmness with less expectations should help the player maintain a consistency within performances: whether or not those will be better in particular ways to Ward is yet to be seen.
What can be said is that the Dane will get a run of games as the No. 1, allowing him to develop and prove he should stay at the club in the next season. After all, otherwise the Foxes will be forced to sign a high-profile over-ready player such as Alban Lafont.