In one of the tightest relegation fights in Premier League history, Leicester City’s hopes of survival are under serious threat. Having failed to win in their last six matches, a once safe Leicester have now plummeted down to 17th in the table, with only one point between them and the drop.
The good work against Aston Villa and Tottenham has swiftly been forgotten with a series of drab performances against beatable sides. However, the tide could possibly be changing for the Foxes. A credible point earned away at high-flying Brentford could be the starting-point that Brendan Rodgers needed in order to wake his fatiguing side. Now, with only 11 games left to play in the Premier League, every game is crucial.
As of the international window, only four points split Southampton in 20th and Crystal Palace in 12th. A win for any of the current bottom three (West Ham, Bournemouth, and Southampton) could lift them out of the relegation zone and plunge a rival in.
The gap, meanwhile, between Palace in 12th and Aston Villa in 11th is 11 points, meaning there is nothing other than survival for the bottom nine clubs to play for. As a fan it is nerve-wracking, for a neutral it will be an outstanding conclusion to the league.
Of Leicester’s 11 games, six are against direct relegation rivals, whilst the remaining five are against teams pushing for European places. There are no ‘easy’ games coming for the Foxes, but they are in control of their own destiny.
The term ‘six-pointer’ is often used at this time of year, but for those six games against those around them in the table, all should be, and will be, classed as ‘six-pointers’. Not only will the Foxes have the chance to move up the table, but their opponent will be left behind them.
Leicester City’s must-win games
In an ideal world, the Foxes would go 11 for 11 in the final stage of the season, but that won’t happen. What is crucial though, is the six games against their direct rivals. This all starts on Saturday 1st April when the Foxes visit Crystal Palace. Of all the coming games, this is the most important.
Palace have somewhat gone under the radar for their recent struggles, but have since pressed the panic button by firing Patrick Vieira and re-appointing Roy Hodgson in order to save them from relegation. The Eagles will be looking for their new (old) manager boost when they take on Leicester. It’s crucial that Rodgers doesn’t allow that to happen.
If they can score early at Selhurst Park, they can spoil any story of a refresh for Palace. Not only would a win hinder their opponents, but it would start the league resumption with some positive momentum that they can take with them to the next game.
A week after the Palace clash, Bournemouth travel to the King Power. A win against the Cherries would be massive for the team, as well as for the fans. If Leicester are to survive the drop, they’ll need the fans to help carry them there, especially as six of their last 11 games will be played at home. If results can lift fan morale, the Foxes faithful can help turn the King Power back into a fortress.
By the time May comes around, Rodgers will have already faced Palace, Bournemouth, Wolves, and Leeds before hosting Everton on May 1st. Five wins from these games would surely be enough to climb away from the scrap for survival.
If Rodgers can’t win all these games however, it’s crucial that he doesn’t lose any of them. Points will see Leicester through, but they can’t afford to get none whilst teams around them get three. Draws have to be the minimum. In this fight, a single point could be the difference between the Premier League and the Championship.
Against the top-half
Whilst wins will be crucial against the bottom-half teams, it doesn’t mean the games against the top-half teams can be write-offs. In the league, momentum is everything.
Coming up, Leicester host Aston Villa and Liverpool, meanwhile they will visit three tough grounds: Manchester City, Fulham, and Newcastle. As said before, these teams will all be pushing for a place in Europe, so will be fiercely competitive. Whilst you’d hope the Foxes can have enough in them to beat Villa and an inconsistent Liverpool at home, the away games will be real tests of their character.
If they can get any points from their trips to Manchester, London, and Newcastle, it’ll be an extra bonus for their survival. However, losing those games won’t be a disaster as long as the performances are there. What cannot be allowed to happen is the Foxes relying on those fixtures for safety, they have to get results against the bottom nine.
Leicester’s secret advantage
With all the talk focusing on points, one of Leicester’s assets has gone unnoticed by many: the amount they score. In a season so tight, the final placement of teams could go down to goal difference.
Currently, the Foxes have scored the most goals of any of the bottom nine this season with 38. The problem hasn’t been with how many goals they’ve scored, instead with how many they’ve conceded. Their goal-tally currently puts them with the joint-highest goal difference of the nine teams – level with Leeds on -9.
It is crucial, then, that against a side such as Manchester City or Liverpool, if they were to lose the game, they make sure the defeat is only by one or two goals. The Foxes cannot afford to be on the end of a 9-0 thrashing that we saw Liverpool dish out against Bournemouth, or allow Erling Haaland to run riot against them.
Brendan Rodgers knows this, hence why he was so vocal about the defensive performance of Harry Souttar after the draw with Brentford. After the game, Rodgers acclaimed the Australian international when speaking to the media:
"“I was really pleased with the spirit and the fight and the resilience of the team. We were unfortunate to go behind, it was two deflections on the goal. We had to defend a lot of set-pieces today and I thought the players did that extremely well. We were really aggressive and really organised. Harry Souttar in particular was outstanding. Places like here where they load the boxes with set-pieces, your centre-halves need to be able to defend. Him and Daniel [Amartey] were very good but Harry in particular got his head onto everything. As a team we defended well. I don’t think there were too many chances for either team.” Via LeicestershireLive"
Each game is now critical for Leicester, the cliche of each game being a cup final has never rung truer. If the Foxes survive, it’ll be down to squeezing out victories and keeping their defence tight. Time will tell if Rodgers’ men have enough to get through one of the greatest challenges in their recent history. The margin for error has never been so slim.