Leicester City vs Burnley: Opponent watch
The Foxes host Burnley on Saturday in what will be a tough fixture as the winter period heats up, but what can Leicester City expect from their opponents?
After somewhat surprisingly picking up all three points against Tottenham Hotspur in midweek, Leicester now face a Burnley side that has defied all expectations this season.
Clarets manager Sean Dyche has given his side a clear identity, and his side Burnley are up in sixth place, ahead of Spurs.
What to expect
Away from home, Dyche’s side are going to concede possession, generally defend with plenty of men behind the ball and look to counter when Leicester City lose the ball in advanced areas. Dyche, in Rory Smith’s New York Times piece on Burnley said:
"“The way it is designed is to put a player in a position that it is statistically, visually and from experience, harder to score from.”"
This is done by forcing the opposition forwards into shots from wide angles and putting more defenders in position to block the ball, by having more men between the shot and the goal than any other side.
Tactics
Burnley have generally played this season in a 4-5-1 system, with either Sam Vokes, Chris Wood or Ashley Barnes leading the line.
Jeff Hendrick has played as the closest midfielder to the striker, with Jack Cork and Stephen Defour anchoring the midfield and Robbie Brady and Johann Berg Gudmundsson providing the width.
Much has been written about Burnley’s defence, and how they’ve drastically overperformed their Expected Goals numbers in the past four seasons, but their offence is equally as interesting.
Burnley rank 11th in Expected Goals Allowed, and 19th in Expected Goals For (Via DoublePivotPodcast).
While Burnley have conceded 11 goals – only fewer than the two Manchester clubs – they also rank 11th in goals scored.
A lot of Burnley’s offence is generated through lobbed balls to the lone striker from the full-backs, who then flick the ball on to the three most advanced midfielders. It’s generally not an effective gameplan, but it is low-risk and when worked at, can be high-reward as Burnley are currently proving.
Burnley’s pass completion percentage ranks 19th, incidentally only above Leicester City. On the contrary, Burnley have won more aerial duels than anyone else in the league.
The Clarets rank fourth in accurate long balls, and have made more inaccurate long balls than any other side while only West Bromwich Albion have completed fewer short passes than them(Via Whoscored).
Strengths
Aerial balls are Burnley’s biggest strength, so Harry Maguire and Wes Morgan will have to be on top of their game in order to keep the Clarets’ towering players at bay.
Leicester City will also need to remain patient when trying to break down Burnley’s low block, and may need to be inventive as lobbed crosses into the box will not result in much joy for Claude Puel’s men.
Weaknesses
Burnley generally have very few weaknesses, but their inability to create good chances is one of them. In away games, they are averaging 7.7 shots per game, which is only higher than Swansea City and West Brom (Via Whoscored).
Should Leicester manage to get a goal past Nick Pope, they may only need that solitary goal in order to win all three points and maintain Puel’s impressive start to life at the Foxes.
Key matchups
As soon as space appears behind Ben Mee and James Tarkowski, Jamie Vardy will be key in order to get behind the two defenders, an area of Vardy’s game where he excels. However, if that space never appears and Burnley defend deep, the England international could fade out of the game.
Puel could look to pair Vardy with another striker in order to draw the centre-backs out of position for the 30-year-old to move into that space, and if so, then this matchup will be the one to watch.