Wolves vs Leicester: Why the foxes can dominate!

A poorly and a healthy pack

Wolves are poorly. In their last five home matches, they have won two, drawn one, and lost two. They have scored eight across those five, with a combined xG (expected goals) of 5.77. This means they are outscoring their quality of chances – or getting lucky. They conceded eight across those five, with a combined xGA (expected goals against) of 5.48. They have also conceded more than expected.

The comparison could not be starker. Three wins, two draws, no losses, for five matches. This has involved eight scored goals, and only three conceded. As well as this, they have summated an xG of 6.67, and an xGA of 2.73. Leicester City have been ruthless and defensively sound – every match.

What this tells us is that the Foxes are the healthier pack away from home, whereas Wolves have stumbled at home. We might expect this to change soon, as their new striker gets acquainted with the league. Let us delve deeper into their statistics.

Defensive statistics and ‘keepers

Let us analyse Wolverhampton Wanderers defence. Before throwing statistics about, let’s appreciate what they have. Wolves tend to play with three centre-backs, or a back four with one of their centre-backs (Max Kilman) playing as a left-back.

So, they are quite a compact and energetic defence, usually disrupting and dictating the passage of play in their favour. It is concerning that since the terrible injury to Jiminez, that they have struggled to maintain their confidence – their defence has had a lot of work to do.

Let me not mince any words, their system and defensive organisation remain the standout quality which allows Wolves to be in the position they are. They have great players at the back, and they deserve every ounce of praise.

Alright, now we know their unfortunate situation. Let’s scrutinise our opposition.

Wolves have five clean sheets this season, conceding 1.41 goals per match. They have conceded a total of 31 goals, with a combined xGA of 30.74. Well, these stats make analysis very easy to do.

They are the ninth worst team for conceding quality chances according to Understat. They are conceding far too many goals, which is why we are seeing experimentation from Nuno with the formation and positions they use – a back four is not common for Wolves, and it is clear they need to try new things.

They are conceding more than the chances they create. They are letting too many chances on their goal. This has got to change for the wolf pack to regain their spot in the top eight clubs in the league.

Once more, the comparison with the Foxes’ pack is stark. Leicester have eight clean sheets, conceding 1.14 goals per match. They have summated 25 concessions, having an xGA of 25.33. These statistics are very good.

The reason for this startling defensive record (fifth in the league, marginally behind Tottenham) has to undeniably be the defenders – not so much the system. Let me recall those players tasked with disruptive or defensive duties.

Soyuncu, Evans, Fofana, Amartey, Castagne, Ricky P, Justin, and Thomas, as well as the defensive midfielders Mendy, Ndidi, and Choudhury. The Foxes don’t need any new signings in these positions. Every player has a slightly different role to play and differing strengths to boot. This is a balanced squad.

On that note, check out my article on why Leicester City’s defence can become the best in the EPL!

Soyuncu can progress from defence under the press. Evans is fully capable of maintaining his composure and making the right defensive action at the right time. Fofana is energetic and passionate, omnipresent almost. Amartey is cool and aerially sound. The list goes on.

Let us not forget the goalkeepers and their contribution to each respective team. This will be a battle between Rui Patricio and Kasper Schmeichel – the Great Dane.

Wolves’ Patricio plays every match, has had to make 2.1 saves per game, which is a 60% save success rate. This is coupled with facing 60 shots from inside the box, conceding 28 of those. Opta award him a 38 on their performance index.

Leicester City’s Schmeichel plays every match, has had to make 2.8 saves a game, which is a 71% save success rate. He has also faced 70 shots inside the box, conceding just 21 of those. Opta award him a 60 on their performance index.

There are two important pieces of analysis from this data. The Great Dane is a fantastic shot stopper, preventing shots on target being converted to help cover the odd occasion when the defenders have a mare day.

Beyond his goalkeeping duties, he performs few other defensive action bar the occasional clearance. This is similar to Patricio, only to a more significant degree: Patricio offers essentially nothing outside of goalkeeping, and has not performed to his usual standards.

From this, we can tell that the Foxes are defensively superior to the Wolves at this time. We concede less, and our goalkeeper is simply more experienced and has used that experience to great effect. This should hold good news when LCFC go marching in. Let’s have a look at our attack now.