Wolves vs Leicester: Why the foxes can dominate!

Wolverhampton Wanderers

host Leicester City this weekend, in a game live on Sky Sports. Join FoL as we analyse the form, statistics, and the path to victory for the Foxes.

On 7th February, the wolf pack will get another chance to dance with the fox pack. The previous version of this match was a 1-0 win for the Foxes at King Power. In this rematch, Leicester City are now in a position to push on and make this a 6-pointer.

First though, let us delve into Leicester’s last match – that against Fulham.

Leicester City and the ‘professional’ match

On the 30th November 2020, Leicester was humiliated 2-1 by Fulham at home. As I wrote in my ‘rematch, pre-match analysis’, Wednesday’s match away at Craven Cottage was important. It was revenge. This revenge was glorious; a 2-0 victory away.

So, please do check out the three things we learnt from that match, the player ratings, and another one of the previews my colleagues wrote preparing us for the match. Of note is how impressive this performance was. Despite the injuries. Despite losing the most consistent striker, the best defensive midfielder, and Wesley Fofana.

In my Leeds United post-match reaction, my two primary tactical concerns were the lack of a predatory or penetrative force for the Foxes. I posed that the Foxes had to either choose Iheanacho and a winger to link up with him, or suffer the same fate. Brendan played Iheanacho.

Must I say how impressed I was with him? There are several aspects to the game he brings which are different to Jamie Vardy. Firstly, he brings his intricate and technical first touch, allowing him to remove a defender from the equation. ‘Nacho did this to great effect for the second goal.

Second, Iheanacho brings high vertical ball retention. He keeps the ball high up the pitch. Using his strength, his long arms, and clever passing, he can help the Foxes to hang onto the ball when he receives it to foot. When he does not, his main strengths are not played to, and he looks ineffective.

Finally, he brings involvement. Something which Vardy does not do in abundance – due to his style more than anything – is to drop quite far deep and assist in build-up play. We saw Perez doing this too much and losing the ball too much while he was striker; ‘Nacho did not fall into this trap.

Beyond this, I would call the performance ‘professional’. I would be cautious to say we were excellent, because we did let several potential chances through the nets while playing very defensively. Once Amartey was brought on for Barnes at the 76th minute, the game looked thoroughly in our control.

All substitutions were defensive minded, or designed to nullify the primary threats of Fulham at that moment. Choudhury did amaze in the 60 minutes he had on the pitch, disrupting Anguissa and Tete excellently. His interventions were critical. Mendy was brought on once Anguissa was removed, this helped to provide positional awareness to maintain organisation in defence.

Overall, I am happy with this match, seven out of ten! So, onto the next match, against Wolves. Let us have a look at the form, defensive and offensive statistics, and how LCFC might find a victory in what will be a tough match.

A poorly and a healthy pack

Wolves are poorly. In their last five home matches, they have won two, drawn one, and lost two. They have scored eight across those five, with a combined xG (expected goals) of 5.77. This means they are outscoring their quality of chances – or getting lucky. They conceded eight across those five, with a combined xGA (expected goals against) of 5.48. They have also conceded more than expected.

The comparison could not be starker. Three wins, two draws, no losses, for five matches. This has involved eight scored goals, and only three conceded. As well as this, they have summated an xG of 6.67, and an xGA of 2.73. Leicester City have been ruthless and defensively sound – every match.

What this tells us is that the Foxes are the healthier pack away from home, whereas Wolves have stumbled at home. We might expect this to change soon, as their new striker gets acquainted with the league. Let us delve deeper into their statistics.

Defensive statistics and ‘keepers

Let us analyse Wolverhampton Wanderers defence. Before throwing statistics about, let’s appreciate what they have. Wolves tend to play with three centre-backs, or a back four with one of their centre-backs (Max Kilman) playing as a left-back.

So, they are quite a compact and energetic defence, usually disrupting and dictating the passage of play in their favour. It is concerning that since the terrible injury to Jiminez, that they have struggled to maintain their confidence – their defence has had a lot of work to do.

Let me not mince any words, their system and defensive organisation remain the standout quality which allows Wolves to be in the position they are. They have great players at the back, and they deserve every ounce of praise.

Alright, now we know their unfortunate situation. Let’s scrutinise our opposition.

Wolves have five clean sheets this season, conceding 1.41 goals per match. They have conceded a total of 31 goals, with a combined xGA of 30.74. Well, these stats make analysis very easy to do.

They are the ninth worst team for conceding quality chances according to Understat. They are conceding far too many goals, which is why we are seeing experimentation from Nuno with the formation and positions they use – a back four is not common for Wolves, and it is clear they need to try new things.

They are conceding more than the chances they create. They are letting too many chances on their goal. This has got to change for the wolf pack to regain their spot in the top eight clubs in the league.

Once more, the comparison with the Foxes’ pack is stark. Leicester have eight clean sheets, conceding 1.14 goals per match. They have summated 25 concessions, having an xGA of 25.33. These statistics are very good.

The reason for this startling defensive record (fifth in the league, marginally behind Tottenham) has to undeniably be the defenders – not so much the system. Let me recall those players tasked with disruptive or defensive duties.

Soyuncu, Evans, Fofana, Amartey, Castagne, Ricky P, Justin, and Thomas, as well as the defensive midfielders Mendy, Ndidi, and Choudhury. The Foxes don’t need any new signings in these positions. Every player has a slightly different role to play and differing strengths to boot. This is a balanced squad.

On that note, check out my article on why Leicester City’s defence can become the best in the EPL!

Soyuncu can progress from defence under the press. Evans is fully capable of maintaining his composure and making the right defensive action at the right time. Fofana is energetic and passionate, omnipresent almost. Amartey is cool and aerially sound. The list goes on.

Let us not forget the goalkeepers and their contribution to each respective team. This will be a battle between Rui Patricio and Kasper Schmeichel – the Great Dane.

Wolves’ Patricio plays every match, has had to make 2.1 saves per game, which is a 60% save success rate. This is coupled with facing 60 shots from inside the box, conceding 28 of those. Opta award him a 38 on their performance index.

Leicester City’s Schmeichel plays every match, has had to make 2.8 saves a game, which is a 71% save success rate. He has also faced 70 shots inside the box, conceding just 21 of those. Opta award him a 60 on their performance index.

There are two important pieces of analysis from this data. The Great Dane is a fantastic shot stopper, preventing shots on target being converted to help cover the odd occasion when the defenders have a mare day.

Beyond his goalkeeping duties, he performs few other defensive action bar the occasional clearance. This is similar to Patricio, only to a more significant degree: Patricio offers essentially nothing outside of goalkeeping, and has not performed to his usual standards.

From this, we can tell that the Foxes are defensively superior to the Wolves at this time. We concede less, and our goalkeeper is simply more experienced and has used that experience to great effect. This should hold good news when LCFC go marching in. Let’s have a look at our attack now.

Offensive statistics

Let us delve into their attacking aesthetic and statistics. Wolves create 0.68 chances per match, where Leicester creates 1.14 chances per match. Of note is that Leicester’s statistic has improved since my previous match preview, so the switch to Iheanacho up front improved chance creation.

Additionally, Wolves have scored 23, with an xG of 25.60. This is a tad wasteful. There is no escaping that their wastefulness up front is in no small part a result of the injury to Jimenez, he was so integral to that side. He lifted their confidence. Without him, the responsibility to goal scoring and creation has fallen to Neto on the left wing. He has performed well.

Traore has not been fantastic this season. I would not bet on this man to score or assist. He has been poor for his usual standards. Neto and Willian Jose will be critical in building chances and scoring those chances. I hope Jose will hit the ground running and continue his form from his previous match.

The Foxes have scored 39 goals! With an xG of 36.13. This reflects a highly creative side. Well. Actually, let’s rewind a bit. Not highly creative. Leicester tends to create a smaller number of chances than their competitors, but they tend to be high quality chances, this is reflected by combining their chances created and xG. Worth pointing out that LCFC outperform xG due to individual brilliance.

Individual brilliance can only get a team so far. Which is why the scramble was made to get Maddison, Barnes, and Tielemans scoring goals. Now Iheanacho has proven himself in a match, we can only expect he will feature again, and continue to chip in with the occasional goal. The Foxes need more diversity of goal scoring, and they are building this now without Vardy.

Let’s look at how the Foxes can dominate and win in this match!

Leicester City’s path to victory

Before analysing the way in which the Foxes can win this difficult away match against Wolves, I wanted to update you all on injuries.

BBC Sport report that Wilfred Ndidi is an injury doubt

"Brendan Rodgers said that Wilfred Ndidi’s fitness is being monitored over the next 24 hours ahead of the game, there’s still some doubt over his availability. ~ @BBCRLSport"

They also reported that Wesley Fofana – the current frontrunner in my poll on who the best central defender has been for Leicester City (see below) – and Castagne are also injured!

"Wesley Fofana is receiving treatment on a hamstring problem and will be out for 4-5 weeks. Castagne is also “responding well” to treatment of a hamstring injury. ~ BBC Sport"

So that is not good news. Luckily, we also have Soyuncu, Justin, Amartey, Evans, Morgan, and Fuchs who can all play centre-back if required of them. Meanwhile, the situation with the strikers is a little different.

"BREAKING: Brendan Rodgers says that Jamie Vardy is available to play this weekend after recovering from hip surgery ~ BBC Sport"

Well then. The return of Jamie Vardy after his successful operation. Finally. With Vardy back in the squad, Wanderers will be forced into a more defensive set up than perhaps otherwise they would have liked, this will create spaces for our midfielders and wingers to attack into.

However, there is one major caveat. One thing which makes me not want Vardy to start: Kelechi Iheanacho. He was almost completely ignored for two weeks as Perez was shoved up front as a substitute striker to Vardy. Perez was not bad. He simply is not a goal-scorer from that position; he is better as a number 10.

‘Nacho came in midweek and performed excellently. Scoring the first goal, then being integral to the second goal thanks to his wonderful technical abilities. I would be very disappointed on behalf of Iheanacho if he did not get to start and keep his run going.

So, let us make the assumption that Iheanacho will play as we look at how the Foxes can win.

3 primary threats from Wolverhampton Wanderers

First, Neto on the left-wing. He is a very good player no matter what statistic or what match he plays in. He is a little bit of a cross between Barnes and Albrighton: he has pace and little bits of skill, as well as being defensively sound on the track back. To win comfortably, Brendan Rodgers will need to assign an additional player to drift wide on defence.

This will aim to cut passing lanes inwards from Neto and force him to run into Ricardo Pereira and possibly Albrighton or Under. If he goes round them, then a cross is a preferable situation as we will definitely have Soyuncu and Evans in defence, and they are good aerially.

Second, Willian Jose – their new striker – is a traditional poacher. He can sometimes use pace when trying to get in-behind, but is very good positionally, and can sniff out a chance where others may not notice the chance. The East Midlands outfit will have to prevent him trying to run in behind with a compact defensive block, with Justin tucking in to cover any midfield runs as well.

Third, set pieces. Need I explain why? They are a gigantic squad. No matter how you spin it, they will probably get a head to it. The Foxes should try not to give away any fouls or corners if possible, or they could easily be punished. To do this, a low defensive block should maintain enough compactness and organisation to not require aggressive tackling.

So, Leicester should also look to optimising the use of Iheanacho in front of goal. To do this, Albrighton should be on the right wing; his crossing and pull backs are exceptional, and should do well to find ‘Nacho in space.

Additionally, Leicester City should look to use the energy and enthusiasm of Choudhury to counter-balance the usual aggression of Wolves. Disrupting their play and helping to transition will be critical if we are to win this match. Expect a 2-0 win. Wolves are struggling without Jimenez, and the fox pack are not struggling without Vardy. Let’s go!