Leicester vs Brighton, preview: can the Foxes progress in the FA Cup?

Creating chances and scoring goals

In the Cup, the Midlands Outfit have scored seven goals in total across just two matches. Brighton have scored three. That is a gulf of four. However, Premier League opposition is another can of fish.

Leicester have an xG (expected goals) of 34.29, scoring 39. These are impressive attacking statistics. So although the Foxes do not create as many chances as some of the top clubs, they create very high-quality chances.

This is all to do with the patient, positive, and possession-hungry Brendan Rodgers’ style. Leicester City perform better when they can push high up the pitch and stay there, incessantly switching the ball from flank to flank to pull apart defences and penetrate through with midfield and wing runners.

Also, Leicester has a lot of options for how to create and how to score (finally). The players could pass to Barnes to run through the defensive line, Justin to come inwards and pull back, Albrighton to cross or pull back to a midfield player, Ricky P for getting around the defence, Vardy for penetration and so on.

Brighton in the league have an xG of 32.93, only scoring 25. In terms of creating chances, they create a lot of chances of an average quality, but they are very wasteful. They certainly need to improve their goal-scoring acumen if they are to perform better. They actually have a better xG than Leeds!

How Leicester City can win

Brendan Rodgers will definitely have the vast majority of the LCFC squad to choose from. The only notable absentees will be Dennis Praet and Wesley Fofana, Castagne may also still be recovering, and we do not know the exact status of Ndidi until the day.

Put it this way though. We still have most of our starting 11 available. Will they all play? No. And I would hope not. Some need a rest before the upcoming tough game against Liverpool, and some need a chance to impress.

Predicted line-up: Schmeichel, Thomas, Soyuncu, Amartey (these will counter the aerial strength Brighton has), Ricky P, Mendy, Tielemans, Maddison, Barnes, Under, Iheanacho. I predict these players because we really don’t have another midfielder like Maddison or Tielemans available, and nor do we have a Barnes style player on the left wing since selling Gray.

Something of note. Brendan Rodgers has stated he wants to take the opportunity to take a look at some of the younger players in the squad.

If any young players do play from the youth squad, expect to see Vontae Daley-Campbell or Khanya Leshabela. They have featured in senior team squads on the bench recently.

To win, Leicester will need to boss the midfield. Brighton’s strength is their transition through midfield, with players like Bissouma providing solid passing and are decent under pressure. Maddison will be expected to be a maestro in the attacking third, Tielemans will be the primary route out of defence and into attack, be that passing wide to advancing fullbacks or upwards to Maddison.

Further, we will need to see much more penetration. The Foxes need to make use of Under and Barnes to break through or around the defensive low block they will definitely be facing when in possession. The only time we can afford to go through a midfield transition is on the turnover when Brighton inevitably lose possession in LCFC’s half.

The fullbacks will need to provide plenty of numerical overloads on the wings, this will provide four options for the final build of the attack. Either they can go around a cross, stay in-front of the final defensive line and cross, cut inwards between the defensive lines and pass into a late midfielder or holding striker, and/or rush through the lines and cut inwards for a shot on goal.

Whichever Brendan Rodgers chooses, he will need to be very wary of the Brighton midfield and low block; they will not wish to be out the cup, and they will not wish to concede after keeping clean sheets against Tottenham and Liverpool. They will be tough to break down on the transition, the turnover will be the best option for attack.

I can predict a 2-1 win for Leicester City. The East Midlands outfit should outscore their opponents, but Brighton & Hove Albion can certainly score on their day. Come on Foxes!