Leicester turn attention to replacing Arsenal in big six

On the 28th February, Leicester City shall host the resurgent Arsenal FC at the King Power stadium. We explore how the Foxes can take the big six spot.

After a rather satisfying win in the Midlands derby against Aston Villa – one I predicted luckily – painting the Midlands blue once more, Leicester City must face a reinvigorated Arsenal FC at home. This has all the signs of an entertaining spectacle.

Just for a little bit of banter, I should note that in the last four meetings between the King Power side and the ‘Gunners’ we have seen three wins for the Foxes and one draw. If ‘football heritage’ has anything to say about what is going to happen, Leicester should not lose.

The last meeting was a 0-1 win at the Emirates, so let’s set the net points against this ‘phoney’ big six club to six and finally banish the Gunners from the big six and replace them. This article will explain how the Foxes can do just that!

Leicester City: home form revival?

It is probably best not to mention the East Midlands last match at home: the Slavia Prague loss. Too much here, so I’ll link some articles to help everyone understand why Leicester lost on the day (Myself, Reilly, and Alderman).

If the reader has listened to any commentary on Leicester City recently, they will have inevitably heard – for the one thousandth time – that the Foxes home form is shaky, and that their away form is flying. It does not matter what the actual form is, because many commentators do not seem to actually bother researching ‘the invisibles’ (Leicester of course).

The reality is this (Credit to Understat for stats). The East Midlands outfit’s form at home at the start of the season was rather pale. Lacklustre and lethargic performances slowing the King Power train from steamrolling the early league. Away though, they were ‘blitzkrieging’ their opposition.

However, Leicester sit sixth if points only gained at home are considered. With six wins, one draw, and five losses. The last five home matches were three wins, one loss, and one draw. With wins coming against Liverpool FC, Chelsea, and Southampton.

Do not let the commentators fool you. The Foxes have been just fine at home in recent weeks, and is not letting their away performances down any longer.

Arsenal’s away form is more interesting. They sit twelfth if only points gained away are considered, with five wins, one draw, and six losses – the literal opposite of Leicester’s home form. In their last five matches away, they have two losses and three wins. Two of those wins coming against relegation fodder, their losses coming against top half rivals.

The Fox wall

Leicester City are rather fortunate. Thanks to its recruitment, the Foxes have a defensive wall to rival the best in Europe. That is, when they play together. Nevertheless, we have the most balanced central defensive partnerships, and the most terrifyingly competent fullback rosters.

Arsenal are no pushovers either in this regard, though they have only recently found a partnership which functions well at the back. Let us not forget Arsenal’s left-back, Kieran Tierney. A lovely young scot, eclipsed partially by the heights of Andrew Robertson, but he most certainly is going places. So, do not count their defence out either.

So, let’s look at some stats. The King Power side have nine clean sheets this season, conceding an xGA (expected goals against) of 30.08, actually conceding 27. Doing some maths, this means an xGA of roughly 1.2 per match, and 1.02 goals per match.

These figures mean that the Foxes are preventing a plethora of chances, with 7.29 in xGA being accumulated over the past five games home and away. There may not be many chances, due to the possession-hungry system Brendan Rodgers has Leicester City playing, but when the opposition do eventually hit on the turnover, they are good chances.

Leicester’s best defenders have undoubtedly been Wesley Fofana, Jonny Evans, Caglar Soyuncu, Ricardo Pereira, and James Justin. Fofana and Justin are unfortunately out, and it has been interesting to see how the ‘gaffer’ has sought to play Timothy Castagne and Ricky P both on the right rather than have two aggressive fullbacks.

Leicester City definitely have a strong wall of foxes to prevent goals, and Arsenal will do well to get passed them. Note, it does entirely depend on if BR chooses to play Luke Thomas again: he is less positionally astute, and this does leave the centre-backs with more work to-do than if – say – our third Belgian international were playing on the left.

Arsenal on the other hand have eight clean sheets this season, conceding an xGA of 29.50, actually conceding 26. Their away defensive record is actually the third best when judged on xGA. Leicester are ninth at home.

I do rate the Gunners’ defenders, especially Rob Holding. He was almost entirely written off, and now he is the starting XI centre-back providing the more composed role – though much less composed it has to be said – that Jonny Evans brings to the King Power. To quote a single statistic, he has made four clearances per game: that is actually a lot of defensive work.

This will be a very interesting defensive battle. Though the East Midlands outfit has conceded more in xGA, meaning they are more at risk of conceding a goal, and Arsenal are defensively very sound, the ability to score goals is more divergent.

Foxes up front

Leicester City have been an attacking force to contend with this season. They are improving massively, and finally becoming consistent, this is why Youri Tielemans loves playing here. This is of course within the context of not always attacking at the pace and ferocity they are capable of. Whereas Arsenal have been a lame duck.

Let’s take a look at the stats. The King Power side create an average of 1.12 big chances per match, with an xG (expected goals) of 37.60, with 44 actually scored. This would only make them eighth in terms of xG. That sounds not too good, but the three teams ahead of the Foxes are Brighton & Hove Albion, Aston Villa, and Leeds United.

To be honest with you, those three teams have sacrificed defensive solidity for attacking intent. Further to this, Brighton and Villa both create a large number of low quality chances, where Leicester create high quality chances patiently – until they get desperate anyway.

Just for reference, the Foxes four best attacking contributors per 90 (judged based on xG90 + xA90 – Islam Slimani) are Jamie Vardy, Cengiz Under, Kelechi Iheanacho (start him!), then Harvey Barnes. For granted, Barnes has played a lot more minutes than Under and ‘Nacho. This is why I would love to see Barnes, ‘Nacho, and Under in the starting XI.

Arsenal on the other hand are interestingly subpar. With an average of 1.16 chances, with an xG of 32.88, actually scoring 31. I cannot pin down how they are not more potent. Though I suppose a full strength Arsenal would be more potent.

Imagine facing Thomas Partey, Martin Ødegaard, Bukayo Saka, and their obviously brilliant strikers. That does not sound fun. Do not forget that Leicester are without James Maddison, Ayoze Perez, and Dennis Praet (injury update to follow). The only two players who are not already in the starting XI who can cover are ‘Nacho and Sidnei Tavares.

From an attacking standpoint, with the benefit of having the currently on-form Barnes, I rate Leicester City to score a goal at least, maybe two if Vardy can get involved. Remember that Arsenal can score if they turn up to score. Let’s see how we can win this one.

Leicester City: How to seize the big six

Kicking off this guide, I want to mention the injuries which Leicester have. In no particular order, the Foxes are without: Justin, Fofana, Praet, Perez, Morgan, and Maddison. Credit to BBC Sport for the update.

That injury list does not look good, but Fofana is re-joining training next week, and Praet is expected back in early March. That would be some very welcome news.

I would line-up with the same attacking system BR has used in many previous matches, helping us to great heights in this season: a 4-3-3 with Youri Tielemans in his actual deep transitional midfield role. The team should be: Kasper Schmeichel, Evans, Soyuncu, Castagne, Ricky P, Wilfred Ndidi, Tielemans, Tavares, Under, Barnes, and Iheanacho.

The benefits of this team would be potent. Strong in terms of penetrating defensive lines and/or rounding them to whip in crosses. Strong in terms of patiently retaining possession until an opening is made. Strong in defending turnovers. Strong in youthful energy and experience.

On our right, Under and Ricky P will need to keep an advancing Kieran Tierney from creating opportunities on their left, with his early crossing and pacy penetration a key in many of Arsenal’s goal scoring opportunities. Meanwhile, they will also have to penetrate defensive lines themselves.

In particular, I would like to see Under come a little more central, and Ricky P stay wider, this would take advantage of Pereira’s strong right foot and pace, as well as Under’s technical ability and need to be more central for goal scoring.

In midfield, Ndidi will have to be on guard to prevent counter-attacks, as this is the Gunners new main threat thanks to their pace and ingenuity. Tielemans’ role is integral to both transitioning into attack and also providing pressure on the defence. He must play deep again.

The inclusion of Tavares might be a little scary. He is largely untested at this level and we could instead have a No. 10 as Iheanacho. However, I want Kelechi Iheanacho further up front so that Leicester City will have plenty of involvement from the main striker, something we see too seldom from Vardy.

Tavares is a fantastic young talent, and very good technically and creatively. He can certainly slot in for Maddison, though he cannot be relied upon to have soul creative responsibilities. This point alone is why the support of an assured back line, a creative left winger in Barnes, and an involved Iheanacho would benefit his performance.

This is how the Foxes can seize Arsenal’s spot in the big six, by beating them twice in one season and finishing in a European place with them outside. Leicester City must show their top six credentials here if they want to be taken seriously by commentators for once.

Do not fret if this turns out ugly, next season the King Power side should have at least two or three new entries, including returning from loan, who can step up and help take Leicester City to another level. Checkout why Kamal Sowah and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall are ready for their breakout seasons!