Leicester v Leeds: match preview and predictions

According to FB Ref, Leicester City have constructed 1.04 expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes, conceding 1.34 in xGA per 90. On xG alone, the King Power club should be 13th. This remains the case when we instead focus on xG Difference per 90 (which is -0.30).

Leeds by contrast are in a similar position. They sit 15th in the league, with nine points: coming from an additional win and an additional draw earlier in the season. They have constructed 1.42 xG90 and conceded 1.24 in xGA90. They are positive 0.18 in xGD90.

So, as we already were aware, Leeds United are a highly creative team, utilising high presses and swift counter attacks to cut through opposition lines. It is a highly effective method of creation. They would also be higher up the table if everything had gone as expected.

In essence then, Leicester create less, defend less, and are less well equipped (due to injuries) to deal with the attacking threat posed by our incoming opponents. Both teams can expect to score at least once, although things could be very different with the exclusion of James Maddison.

‘Madders’ accounts for 1.5 of our total xG and five of our goals. It is undeniable the Foxes will be less creative without the player. So, we cannot even be sure of scoring a single goal dependent upon who Rodgers chooses to play.