3 Things to watch out for in Leicester’s Forest test

Nottingham Forest fans display a tifo (Photo by Catherine Ivill/Getty Images)
Nottingham Forest fans display a tifo (Photo by Catherine Ivill/Getty Images) /
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Leicester City
Brendan Rogers, Manager of Leicester City (Photo by Richard Sellers/Getty Images) /

Rodgers’ team have created around 1.16 in expected goals per 90 this season. This means we should expect the average goal scorer to have got at least one goal in each of their matches. With 24 actual goals, the Midlanders have scored more than expected: were it not for their poor defensive output they would be significantly higher in the table.

Coopers’ team have constructed 1.04, which puts them marginally below the Foxes with a total of 18.8 xG versus 20.8 xG over the course of 18 games. Forest have actually scored 13: well that is just an abysmal stat reminiscent of Brighton & Hove Albion’s most inconsistent of days. They simply cannot score their chances.

Defensively, both have conceded 1.56 in xG to their opponents: a total of 28.08 xG. However, the terrifying stats are the actual concession, 31 and 34 goals conceded respectively. Forest the second worst, Leicester the fourth worst in the Premier League. So, both have awful defences.

This is what to look out for: how the defence stack up on the day. Are defenders confident and aggressive, or are they timid and lacking in instinctive disruption? If you spot the latter, the other side will likely win the day.