The King Power Club are once again in front of home supporters on September 5th, as the Foxes host fellow relegated side Oxford United in a clash of hopeful promotees. With both sides sharing the same ambition, Leicester having completed their immense makeover, and improvements needed in performances, here is what to expect from the tense meeting.
Leicester City broken down
Supporters expect the world of Leicester City. Rightly so, for that matter. They have seen the tremendous rise, the tumultuous fall, and the incredulous failure and shattering of confidence that has seen the once Premier League top-six challenger fall into this lowly division.
Yet this is no walk in the park: the makeover has altered the team's character, the coach has changed the play style, and the opponents are tough and determined to get something from us.
Russell Martin's squad have lost one game, drawn two, and, against Plymouth Argyle, commenced their winning ways (the first of many, we hope). Based on that, Opta Analysts predict the King Power side will finish seventh, looking at expected goals, which broadly reflect our league standing, and the balance of performances thus far. A lot more games to play, though, and plenty of time for this squad to click.
Specifically, we have created around 5.3 xG, meaning the quality of our chances should have been enough to get us that many goals, but we conceded 4.7 xGA. A 0.6 delta in favour of LCFC. Should we choose to compare this to top-of-the-table Huddersfield (what should be our ambition), they already have 8.3 xG and only 4.3 xGA, a whole 4.0 xG delta in their favour. This means that, on the balance of chances created, we will trend to draws while they will trend to wins.
Our soon-to-be opponents, Oxford, are in a far worse spot: creating just 4.2 xG and conceding 7.0 xGA. They actually conceded six goals to their five goals, which sees them unremarkably in 13th place with one game less than us and a point behind us. They have won, drawn, and lost one time each thus far. That makes this match-up a difficult one to predict with precision.
The Foxes will dominate the ball, averaging 71% possession. Although this has at times been spineless, locked in our own defensive third, or forced into wild mistakes, we should expect Oxford to struggle to gain as much of the ball as they average (about 60% again), and against a team who prefer possession, the King Power side should do well.
Add to that the improvement in our defence and attack with the signings of Emil Riis and Warren O'Hora, and Martin has little excuse for not getting something from this fixture. Our opponents struggle not to give away chances, are another relatively spineless possession team, and we now have little sparks of creativity backed by at least one player who knows where the net actually is.
Predicted starting XI
It would be extremely harsh for the head coach to make major alterations to the side which beat Plymouth and mostly performed well against MK Dons. A lot depends on the injury situation with a couple of players, such as Conor Chaplin and Jakub Stolarczyk. The Polish goalkeeper came off against Plymouth in the opening minute with a nasty injury, and Chaplin was absent due to an injury sustained in the first half against MK Dons.
On that basis, Alex McCarthy - in part due to a lack of options and his inspired heroics in the final 30 minutes against Plymouth - will start in the net, with a backline of Christian McFarlane, Warren O'Hora, Harry Souttar, and Jayden Joseph. Luke Thomas would be unlucky to fall out of the starting line-up if this transpires, but 'Souts' will be captain, and O'Hora knows Martin's system better.
In midfield, it will be pretty much cut and paste: Louis Page, Sammy Braybrooke, Bobby De Cordova-Reid. No matter how much we protest at 'Bobby's' inclusion in the game, unless Liam Cullen proves himself in training, Martin prefers the more experienced attacking midfielder. I would, however, expect John Lundstram and Cullen from the bench. If Chaplin is fit enough, he takes that spot from 'BDCR'.
The front line will see the biggest change, with Emil Riis taking the No.9 spot from Admir Bristric and the occasional De Cordova-Reid wayward spot. The 'Great Dane' will be a towering centre-forward with real experience fighting at this level, a passion and hunger to prove he has what it takes at the King Power, having personally chosen to come to Leicester. Will Alves and Harry Howell are nailed-on starters at this point on the flanks, but the head coach may choose to give the Foxes alternate progressive options, in which case the more crossing-focused Wes Burns might start on the right.
As a result of all this, we can expect Russell Martin to edge out another victory for Leicester City. It will not be entirely pretty; it will be scrappy, and the visitors will probably score at least one past us; however, regardless, a 2-1 or 3-1 win is on the cards, with the 'Great Dane' and Harry Howell leading the way, getting a goal or two each. Up the Foxes.
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