Fulham vs Leicester: The rematch, pre-match analysis

Offensive statistics

Let’s have a look at their attacking styles. Fulham create around 1.2 chances per match, whereas LCFC create around 1.1. Fulham have scored only 17, with an xG of 24.17! That includes a 0.72 xG for each missed penalty. Pretty poor. They lack creativity without midfield runs, and they are wasteful.

The Foxes have scored 37 with an xG of 34.64. The last two matches have shown what happens to a team consistently overperforming their xG when one of those responsible is gone, and two stayed in the dressing room (Barnes and Maddison).

Nevertheless, Leicester City have been possession-hungry, big chance creating monsters. In matches, they will try to retain and recycle the ball to stretch play and reduce defensive organisation, then hitting quickly on the transition to produce a high-quality (high xG) chance.

How can Leicester City win

This is a rematch the Foxes have to win. We are better away from home, play with more gusto, and are against a team who rely of midfielders. The answer to victory is actually fairly simplistic.

Firstly, maintain the dynamic 4-3-3 on attack-transition to 4-4-2 on defence-press to crowd out and congest the centre of the park. On the attack the formation must be horizontally wide, playing incessant switches quickly and directly over midfield to the other flank, this stretches the defenders and reduces organisation.

Second, play Iheanacho: LCFC will find most joy in the duality of their wingers and wing-backs, alongside penetrating runs from a late midfielder. Creating numerical advantages on the wing, providing the option of both pulling back to another late arrival in the box, or a whipped cross to ‘Nacho.

Iheanacho is better positionally than Perez, this needs to be used to score goals. Expect Under and Barnes to flank him; their pace to penetrate the defensive line will suit the hold-up strength and ball retention abilities of ‘Nacho.

Finally, the two D’s: dominate and disrupt. Their midfield must not be allowed any space to think in the game, the two ranks of four must be held high on the defensive press, dominate the midfield and constantly hound their players to disrupt play and force mistakes. Hitting on the turnover will be crucial to the winning side.

A 2-1 win is on the cards for the Foxes – hopefully. They just need to not give the Lilywhites any easy chances, or let their midfield dominate. Let’s build some momentum boys (and get Jamie Vardy back soon, then buy a long term replacement)!