Fulham vs Leicester: The rematch, pre-match analysis
Fulham the draw specialists
Regarding form, at home over the last five matches, Fulham have two losses and three draws. Throughout the whole season, they have only won once at home. This is no Allardyce-Fortress. I called Leeds Swiss cheese, so I will deem Fulham mildly soft butter.
Across those five matches, The Cottagers have scored only two goals, and have a combined xG for of 5.27: 1.054 per match. To be fair to them, this is not entirely terrible wastefulness, though they do lack a certain kind of creativity, relying too heavily on runs from midfield. Luckily for them, their midfield is actually quite good.
On the other hand, the Foxes away form has slipped a little: two wins, two draws, one loss. Inconsistent. Scoring six, with a combined xG of 6.51. Not bad all things considered. But also not great. It certainly has not helped losing the predatory Vardy and the penetrative Praet – LCFC could really do with a reinforcement to add either of these qualities into the game.
A draw here would be another good result for Fulham, after beating LCFC previously and drawing with big sides. The Foxes must not get bogged down into a scrappy draw. So, what about their defensive capabilities.
Defensive statistics
Fulham have only four clean sheets to LCFC’s seven. Conceding at least a goal a match. They have conceded 29 goals – joint seventh worst. Facing an xGA of 32.88. This is not a good result!
Fulham are actually quite lucky to not have conceded more! Their defenders have been awfully busy, with a plethora of chances created against them – not all of equal quality – and have managed to prevent almost four expected goals. That is a good statistic going against a top six club. This is what has helped them scrape together so many draws.
Leicester City have conceded 25 in total – four in their last two matches – with an xGA of 26.81 or 24.08 depending on who is measuring (Understat and Infogol are not in agreement on this). It would be sensical to bombast the shambolic defending yesterday, but let us remember what we have going for us.
Brendan Rodgers’ Blue Army have three of the best centre-backs in the league. Three of the best full-backs in the league. And, one of the best goalkeepers in the league – the Great Dane. Their defensive problems are not down to individual failures or lack of talent, it is due to a system which affords little cover on the turnover: they are exposed by quick and direct passes.
Of note here is two new injury woes for the Foxes. Castagne and Fofana will not be fit to play on Wednesday. They both haave sustained hamstring strain after the Leeds match. Meaning the more than capable Soyuncu and Ricardo Periera will have to come into the starting 11.
Alphonse Areola and Kasper Schmeichel are two great shot stoppers. Both have played nearly every match for their respective clubs. Areola making 3.8 saves a game, conceding only one goal from outside the box!
The Great Dane on the other hand has less saves to make, 2.9 per game, concedes slightly more from outside the box at four, yet is more aerially astute in the box [Kasper Schmeichel Leicester City videos, transfer history and stats – SofaScore]. Likely, the statistical differences are down to the quality of what is in front of them.
Fulham’s defence is simply not as good as a fully fit Leicester defence. When Mendy has a back three behind him and a pivot with Tielemans, there is very little space for midfielders to create opportunities against Schmeichel. The Cottagers leave their keeper less exposed, but the defenders lack the pace and strength to prevent chances in the box.