Leicester v Newcastle: Preview for crucial Foxes game

Leicester City shall host a struggling Newcastle United side at the King Power on 7th May 2021. This game is critical for the Foxes top four aspirations.

After a disappointing draw with Southampton FC, Leicester City shall return home to host 17th placed Newcastle United. This match effectively determines whether the Foxes have the points gap to West Ham United to qualify for Champions League football.

In this piece, I’ll briefly look at the importance of the match, the possible permutations, the stats of each team, and look at the team news for the King Power side.

Leicester City’s top four hopes

After 34 matches played, with four to go, Leicester sit third in the table with 63 points. This puts them five points clear of fifth placed West Ham United, who continue their good run of form, with Tottenham Hotspur only two points behind them.

This means there is a one win buffer between the Foxes and missing out on top four. We can lose a single match, provided West Ham win their remaining fixtures, and remain two points ahead.

Considering our remaining fixtures are Newcastle, Manchester United, Chelsea, and Spurs, we have a tough few matches to maintain our position.

A win at the King Power maintains the buffer for another match. So, here is what happens in each critical scenario: West Ham and Leicester both win: If Leicester beat Newcastle, and West Ham beat Everton, then there is no change to the situation. The Foxes will still need to win at least one more match and not lose any to guarantee a top four finish.

West Ham lose, Leicester win: If the Foxes hold onto a win again the Magpies and the Hammers suffer defeat to Everton, then the path to the Champions League is opened. With three matches left, West Ham would need to win all three and a two loss buffer is established. In effect, Leicester could lose two matches and still get top four.

West Ham win, Leicester lose: The one loss buffer is lost, and the Foxes would have to hold onto draws or wins for every remaining fixture – a tough ask. Both lose: If both lose, then the onus is on Spurs and Liverpool to close the gap, drawing more teams into the fray. Leicester would need to win at least one more match and draw the rest.