The King Power Club have already been the lowest they have ever been in the history of the club. Even during our previous stint in League One, the Foxes were never as poor as this, never as low as this, and never has anyone ever written Leicester off from the promotion fight. However, with this terrible start to the season, the naysayers seem to have been right.
Five matches played, and Russell Martin's side has managed to create only five points. A point per match is simply not enough at this level to get us where we need to be. The fact is that Leicester City need promotion for so many reasons.
The state of Leicester City
Martin has constructed the most expensive side in the history of League One: valued at well over £55m minimum, that puts our side's estimated value more than double our nearest competitor (Luton Town). Compound that with an estimated highest wage bill (at least over £400k per week) in the history of the division, and you have a clear sign of a side spending far beyond their means at this level.
At the same time, they have lost obscene amounts of revenue by dropping out of the Premier League, with free transfers away and releasing multiple managers and players to take them out of contract. Fewer supporters go to games, yet we still have the highest attendance rates; fewer supporters have purchased season tickets, and despite this terrible financial situation, we gave medium-term contracts to several older players as well as the head coach.
Leicester City have constructed a valuable starting XI, filled with EFL Championship-quality players and those who are supposedly more passionate about helping the Foxes get out of League One. It is fair to say the players themselves have looked better than their Championship counterparts, but the system they are playing in has put LCFC in a perilous position.
If we compare our current place in the table to the current League One leaders, Sheffield Wednesday, we get a bleak reality check of how Russell Martin and the Leicester City board have mismanaged the Foxes. Sheffield Wednesday have created the most chances by far over the five games, with an xG total of 12.4 and actually scoring 13; conversely, conceding 6.8 xGA and actually conceded six.
That is simple arithmetic: they do not have the best defence (they are on par with us in xGA), but their attack has created and converted myriad chances, and their goalkeeper has prevented them from conceding at expectations, so they therefore find themselves at the top. Sitting on 12 points with four wins, compared to Leicester's single win and inability to create chances (18th worst out of 24 clubs), that cheap and cheerful side actually creates and takes quality chances.
What happens if Leicester does not win
If we include the 3rd October game, the King Power side has four games to really turn it around. If they fail to, they will go beyond rock bottom. Imagine this: one win and a draw, two losses. With an extra four points matching their points-per-game total, we sit at nine points. If Sheffield Wednesday continue their current form, say winning three games and losing one, they would be on 21 points to our nine. A gulf of 12. We would fall an additional five points behind. That is another two wins we would need against their run of form to recover that point difference.
It is worse than just falling further away from automatic promotions and the top spot, though. We have slipped further in Opta's expected position statistics based on xG, xGA, and over/under-performance of those numbers.
We were expected to be 7th place; we are now expected to be 10th place, and actually sit in 18th, in line with our xG. The most expensive team in the history of League One could realistically find itself in the relegation zone. Every team behind us is less than one win away from going ahead of us.
In contrast, one win would climb Leicester to promotion play-off spots. So, it is not dire, but that gulf would widen if the Foxes do not turn it around and start to win. The current point totals are nowhere near insurmountable, and if we improve our chances created, even with a leaky defence on par with us (like Sheffield Wednesday), you can be in the upper echelons of the table. Without those chances created, though, this financial black hole might risk sinking further.
It is not just the prospect of relegation to League Two which should be concerning. Leicester have spent a lot of money to bring together what ought to be the best team in the history of League One, and if we are not in promotion spots by October, some of those players might start planning to jump ship in January, or parent clubs may cancel loans. Should that happen, the revolutionary makeover which was given to Russell Martin's side might end up being for nought.
Leicester City have not created enough chances, not taken their chances (an underperformance against xG, which, if they did perform along with it, they would perhaps be sitting pretty in play-off spots), and failed to prevent quality chances for their opposition.
A cacophony of uselessness and error, wrapped up in high-possession and slow football. Martin's Foxes need to make massive changes and start performing within expectations, or they will sink, get stuck in League One, lose swathes of money, and risk the very foundations of a functional club.
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