Leicester City's remaining Fixtures Analysed ahead of Summit-defining run

Enzo Maresca joined Leicester City as they were abysmally relegated from the Premier League under the 'too late to save us' stewardship of Dean Smith, after Brendan Rodgers failed to lead a strong squad to safety. Since then, a roaring leap into the lead followed by inconsistency and fatigue have defined a revolutionary era for the King Power side.

There remain nine Championship matches, as well as any Emirates FA Cup fixtures there may well be depending upon results. The season is almost over, and the lead is not unsurmountable or guaranteed. 27 points still to play for, and the Foxes need all they can get. With 82 points, only three clear of Leeds United and four from Ipswich Town, not even the automatic promotion spots are guaranteed.

Leicester City's remaining ties

Leicester have nine matches in the EFL Championship left to play, and arguably have the hardest run out of the top four teams. It also does not help that Maresca has successfully guided the Foxes into the FA Cup quarter-finals - adding less time between games.

1. Bristol City (29/03/24 @ 12:30)

The King Power travellers last encountered the Robins in a 1-0 win at home in September 2023. That fixture saw Jamie Vardy score the winner, and Maresca's men dominated with 2.3xG. Over the season, Leicester have constructed 2.85NPxG+xA/90 so have been creative. This number has been lower of late. By comparison, Bristol have constructed 1.67, also being on a losing run recently. A 0-1 win ought to be expected.

2. Norwich City (1/04/24 @ 12:30)

Two days later, LCFC will then face the Canaries. Last time out, Hamza Choudhury led a 2-0 victory for the home side. This was previously just before the Bristol tie. Again, 2.3xG for Maresca's side. This tie should be closer, with Norwich gaining 2.29NPxG+xA90 over the season and with only one loss in their last five, the Canaries should represent strong opposition. This could either be a 1-2 win or 2-1 loss decided late on. Let's call it a draw for now.

3. Birmingham City (6/04/24 @ 15:00)

After some rest, Leicester City should find themselves against more reasonable opposition. These Midlands rivals represent the kind of team Leicester will want to face to keep their points advantage: with no wins in five, and conceding more chances and goals than they score. Birmingham should be a win.

4. Millwall (9/04/24 @ 19:45)

With only a couple days of rest, the Foxes face a tough a defensively resilient Millwall. A team with only one loss in their last five on current form. Of course, a lot could change ahead of this match, but my expectation would be the Leeds United either level or ahead on points by this point. The home side do still concede more than they create, so expect another win.

5. Plymouth Argyle (12/04/24 @ 20:00)

Once again, little rest but another team you would expect to beat. Only one win in five, conceding nearly two goals per 90. By the time of this fixture, the King Power travellers could be back in the lead or neck and neck with Leeds at the summit. Our last meeting was a 4-0 demolition of Plymouth, dominating the match. Expect more of the same.

6. West Bromwich Albion (20/04/24 @ 15:00)

Last time the Foxes met West Brom, Leicester won 1-2 although not entirely dominant. Now, West Brom are currently on a run of form and in the play-offs, and should stay in the play-off battle. However, Maresca's men will be fighting for every point, and a 2-1 win should be replicated against the away team.

7. Leicester City v Southampton (23/04/24 @ 20:00)

I am a bit pessimistic over this one. A member of the top four, a strong former Premier League team, and playing very good football. It is hard to say how close it will be or if Southampton will slow down come this fixture, but this will be the toughest and most important match. A loss almost definitely gives Leeds or Ipswich an edge over us, where a win possible seals promotion. I cannot call this one.

8. Preston North End (27/04/24)

Whatever happens in the Southampton match, three days of rest and a much easier opponent should be enough to see Leicester City past Preston. The home side has conceded 1.19 in xNPG90 and constructed 0.84. So, they do not create or concede too many cutting edge chances and find themselves 10th at the top of the negative goal difference pack. They should be a frustrating fixture, however, a 0-2 win for the Foxes can be expected.

9. Blackburn Rovers (04/05/24 @ 15:00)

Blackburn will be our final test. For Enzo Maresca, at this time the Foxes will likely be looking for results in other matches to ensure the title comes home. However, the Italian will still look for a win in-case they need the points or goal difference to get promoted. These opponents barely concede more than they create in xG. So, once again, a tough test, but a crucial one. Because I have hope, Maresca will win this one for Leicester City

Come the end of the campaign, the King Power club should remain either at the summit or just beneath it with the last nine fixtures hopefully only seeing one clearly risky loss, maybe two if we look at either Millwall or Blackburn Rovers. Leeds on the other hand should walk their opponents and should close the gap, so any slip ups would be nice but the final match will be critical. Leeds United v Southampton on 04/05/24: one team could win it for us, the other steal it after their resurgent form.