To be outright concerned about a fixture in League One for Leicester is perhaps laughable nowadays. Previously, it would be considered silly: many jested about the Foxes walking the league, crushing all beneath them. Well, those, like myself, are not feeling so proud and mighty anymore. A soul-crushing relegation, a serious makeover, and yet the same problems rear their heads again.
Under Russell Martin, Leicester City have not even hit rock bottom yet. We have already posted our worst-ever league standing in the English football pyramid under Martin, the lowest this club has ever been in the recent history of English football. Yet it might not be over, especially as we face off with our hosts Stockport County.
What Leicester City should expect
Stockport are probably going to crush Leicester unless the head coach makes significant alterations and the performances improve as necessary. Our opponents are third in the division, with three wins and two losses (alternating, so perhaps we can win if that pattern is somehow a real thing), scoring the joint-highest number of goals and joint third-least number of goals conceded. To be fair, we have only conceded one less, but the gulf in goals is alarming.
Defensively, we may not appear too far apart, but the story is not particularly appealing. Stockport held their opponents to a total of 47 shots, 17 of those on target, whereas we allowed 61 shots, luckily of which only 19 were on target. This perhaps has more to do with our opposition being less capable of hitting the target, but the picture should be clear. But I will nail it down further.
If you look at xG (expected goals), then the hosts are absolutely out of our league. They are second in the division on xG alone, overperforming that significantly (a sign their goal scorers actually know where the net is), and taking the third most shots in the division. Even if only 30 of the 80 total shots (including blocked shots) were considered on-target, they remain third. LCFC are ninth by the same metric.
Per shot, the King Power Club are the joint worst for the xG created versus the shots on target made. This means we have had the worst chances, taken the worst chances, and mostly failed as a result. We have not transitioned fast enough, have not broken down teams quickly enough, and have been unable to create or exploit spaces due to our obsession with high-possession 'death by football' football. It is nauseating. Stockport? Joint fourth best.
So yeah, the expectation ought to be bleak. Leicester City should create enough chances to have a goal, but have underperformed on xG due to the low quality of the chances they create (except for a few good ones missed by the experienced Bobby De Cordova-Reid), and yet our opponents per match can be expected to have at least two killer chances.
Remember that they currently outperform their xG numbers, so even if the Foxes keep Stockport County fairly quiet, they will score if we get them anything.
Where Leicester are coming off a 0-4 thrashing, they are coming off a 4-0 victory. The only solace we have is that they have but one clean sheet. The expectation should be a 3-1 win for the home side, probably with Will Alves or a miraculous Wout Faes goal stealing the clean sheet from them in the final 20 minutes.
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