The King Power Club sit 12th in the Championship, sitting two wins outside the play-offs, and struggling to maintain a consistent level of performance. Nevertheless, the Foxes have a major task ahead of them as they face Coventry City - the league leaders - although there might be some cause for optimism.
What to expect in the M69 Derby
After our last fixture saw the two sides achieve a draw, splitting the points, it may not be the same situation in this match. Leicester City need to win a few games, and Coventry City have struggled for consistency in recent games. A win against rivals Leicester could help them rebuild their early-season form.
Looking at the two teams statistically, the Blues and Sky Blues could not be further apart. In the competition, our rivals have won five more fixtures than ourselves; they have a goal difference of 28 to our -1, and realistically, they have some of the most talented and in-form players in the division. The Foxes will struggle to make an impact against such obvious odds.
However, the odds get worse for Marti Cifuentes' team. If we explore expected goals, the King Power travellers are averaging one expected goal (xG) every 90 minutes while conceding around 1.43 xG. Our opponents are the reverse: 1.83 xG90 for and 1.09 xG90 against. Both sides outperform their own xG90 by the same amount of 0.29 xG.
Regarding the Midlands team's recent form in the competition (last five matches), Coventry have only scored five goals across two losses, two draws, and one win. Leicester City have accumulated seven goals across two wins and three losses, meaning we technically reduced our gap to them by a single point across 15 possible points. One should note the Foxes conceded 11 across those five, whereas Coventry only conceded seven.
So, we cannot count on outperforming our xG every single game, nor can we expect the Foxes to keep a clean sheet. Both sides are highly likely to score at least one goal, and Leicester usually concede when they concede an alright chance. The only saving grace is our recent matches, which have seen us score more (although we still concede a ridiculous amount) and Coventry lose more than previously.
Further to this, we know that Cifuentes is looking at offloading a couple of players. In lieu of this, it is highly likely we will not see those who are in the process of possible moves - such as Harry Winks - at all, and perhaps the Spaniard will start a couple of youngsters like Louis Page.
In short, expect at least one goal each, err on the side of Coventry winning. Additionally, I would suspect the goal Leicester will concede will be from a set piece and not in open play, whereas Jordan James will probably score the Foxes' goal. With no transfers yet to improve the King Power's team, I doubt anything other than a draw or a loss is likely, but a win would come if Abdul Fatawu, Bobby De Cordova-Reid, and Jordan James turn up.