Leicester vs Liverpool: The Foxes’ best chance at holding back champions

Leicester City’s ‘how to attack’

Offensively, the Foxes are well and truly flying. Well, not recently. Creating 1.13 chances per match, a total xG (expected goals) of 34.29, and 39 goals scored. Over the course of the last five PL matches, they have accumulated an xG of 6.87, and scored six. Mostly this includes one goal a match bar the Fulham match.

This puts Leicester City seventh for creating high quality chances. Other teams are above them either due to a balance between quality and quantity, or because they just create so many chances. Leeds United, Villa, and Liverpool have create a lot of chances, but not necessarily great ones.

The possession-based system Rodgers’ Blue Army imposes on a match requires the penetration, creativity, technicality, and cohesive understanding to create chances for the players. When these features all in harmony, high quality – though not necessarily a lot – chances are created.

The difference to Liverpool is not so stark. They create two high quality chances a match, having an xG of 42.93 and scoring 44 goals. This paints a picture of creativity and goal-scoring intent. Let’s look at their last five matches shall we?

An xG of 8.63, with seven goals. These figures skewed by their matches with Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham United, where they scored more than expected of them. Multiple of those games were either goalless, or losses by a goal.

Therefore, the Foxes show how to attack. Be patient. Do not just keep throwing bodies forward and hoping one of your world-class players will get on the end of a chance. It simply does not work to create tonnes of terrible chances and just hope. This is why Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane are the main threats. They both create and can easily score goals if given space and time.

How the Foxes can reign in the champions

To hold back the champions will be difficult. They will be frustrated after their humiliations at home, their losses to Burnley, Brighton, and Man City, and will look to get off to a quick start. The first half is crucial. Getting a clean sheet in the first half may decide the game.

There are a few injury concerns. Fofana and Castagne remain unavailable for this fixture, as well as Dennis Praet who remains a long-term injury. James Justin’s midweek scare may have been nothing more than a scare, but may not feature against the Reds.

To do this, Rodgers may wish to use this line-up: Schmeichel, Fuchs, Soyuncu, Evans, ‘Ricky P’, Ndidi, Youri Tielemans, James Maddison, Harvey Barnes, Marc Albrighton, and ‘Nacho’.

That is right. No Jamie Vardy party. This line-up would offer basically everything we need to defend well in the first half. Four solid and balanced defenders, a winger who’s defensive tracking back is excellent, the best defensive midfielder in the league, and the ever-reliable Fuchs.

To be honest, Leicester really need another option to play the Tielemans role. That is the transitional role, collecting the ball from the defence and progressing it up the field. Sidnei Tavares could have made his senior debut in this role on Wednesday, yet alas he did not. Next season the Foxes should definitely have cover here with Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall.

To score a goal against this Liverpool team will require patience and keeping hold of the ball. They will press high, they will force a turnover, and the Foxes will have to try and force mistakes and turnovers from Liverpool as well.

Soyuncu is great under pressure, and can break a high press and pass through it very well. Evans is composed when the goal is under threat. Fuchs and ‘Ricky P’ will be critical in progressing the ball around the high press.

Maddison will need to unstick himself from any man-marking he has, and roam freely in the attacking third to penetrate the defensive lines and make clever runs to link up play with wingers.

Albrighton will need to make great use of his crossing and pullback passing into the box. In the penalty box one will find ‘Nacho waiting for a pullback or cross, Tielemans waiting on the edge, and Maddison making his runs beyond the line.

Later on in the match, do not be surprised to see Hamza Choudhury and Vardy. Vardy brings a presence in the box unlike Iheanacho: he can pull defenders out of position. Choudhury has been excellence and energetic, so is great to have while Fofana is out. I’m predicting a 1-1 draw. What do you think?