Foxes of Leicester
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Leicester v Newcastle: Preview for crucial Foxes game

By Elliot Mackness

James Maddison with Jamie Vardy of Leicester City (Photo by Michael Regan/Getty Images)
James Maddison with Jamie Vardy of Leicester City (Photo by Michael Regan/Getty Images) /
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Leicester City
Brendan Rodgers, Manager of Leicester City celebrates victory with Caglar Soyuncu (L) (Photo by Michael Regan/Getty Images) /

What are the chances?

The King Power side remain a top six team in terms of their attacking and defensive output. Largely, this is helped by the patient and possession-based football deployed by Brendan Rodgers to dominate games.

Control of the game is critical for Leicester. If they are dictating the tempo and forcing mistakes, then great chances will come. This has been the story of the season, and the prime strategy for winning games.

Meanwhile, Newcastle have been forced onto the defensive nearly every single match. They do not attempt to control games, and try to grind out victories or draws.

Statistically speaking, the home side have constructed around 25.31 in xG (expected goals) at home over the course of the season, scoring 30. By comparison, Leeds, Aston Villa, Brighton & Hove Albion, Liverpool, and Tottenham are all ahead on this metric.

Luckily, Newcastle are the second worst away side. With only 13.19 in xG, and 14 scored, the Magpies create very few high quality chances for their forwards, who tend to score them.

Defensively, Leicester are tenth at home judged by xGA (expected goals against). With 21.11 in xGA, and 22 actually conceded. These figures are by no means bad, but they are not stellar.

Newcastle are the seventeenth worst team judged on xGA, with 31.74 in chances conceded, and only 27 actually conceded. They are hanging onto the performances of Karl Darlow – their current first choice goalkeeper.

What we can tell from this is that Newcastle will come to the King Power and offer very little in the way of controlling the game, providing an opportunity for Brendan Rodgers’ outfit to take control of the game and create goalscoring opportunities.

Kelechi Iheanacho, Jamie Vardy, and Cengiz Under hold the top three spots for xG per 90 + xA (expected assists) per 90. Team of the Season Vardy has added assists to his game during a barren goal drought, and Iheanacho has become a goalscoring machine. These two have to play.

My only concerns are Allan Saint-Maximin and Callum Wilson. They have the ability to turn up for the big matches and score from the few opportunities which will be made for them. They must be kept on lockdown, no social distancing measures to stop these big game players.